Macro and economic markets cover outcomes such as interest rate decisions, inflation figures and economic data releases, each resolved by an official source.
Scheduled Events
Many macro markets resolve on a known date when data is published or a decision is announced. Prices often move sharply around that moment.
Consensus Expectations
Forecasts from economists shape expectations. Markets tend to react most when results differ from what was expected.
Revisions and Definitions
Economic data can be revised later. Check whether a market uses the first release or a revised number, and which exact measure it uses.
Worked Example
A market asks whether a central bank will cut rates at its next meeting, trading at 70¢. A trader reads the rules and confirms it resolves on the official announcement. They estimate 65% and decide the gap is too small to trade.
Key Takeaways
- Macro markets often resolve on set dates.
- Surprises versus expectations move prices.
- Check the exact data measure and release.
- Small gaps rarely justify a trade.