Managing open positions is about deciding in advance when to hold, reduce or exit a prediction market trade as new information arrives.
Revisit Your Thesis
Write why you entered. When news arrives, ask whether it changes that reason, not just whether the price moved.
Partial Exits
Selling part of a position can lock in some result and reduce risk while keeping exposure to your view.
Time and Resolution
As resolution approaches, prices often move faster. Check how the market resolves and whether you want to hold through that moment.
Worked Example
A trader bought 40 YES shares at 35¢. News pushes the price to 55¢, but their thesis is unchanged. They sell 20 shares at 55¢, recovering $11 of the $14 cost, and hold the rest with much less money at risk.
Key Takeaways
- Record the reason for every position.
- Judge news against your thesis, not the price.
- Partial exits can reduce risk.
- Plan for how and when the market resolves.