A multi-market strategy looks at several related prediction markets together, managing combined exposure rather than treating each trade in isolation.
Map the Relationships
List how markets connect: exclusive outcomes, nested questions or shared drivers. This shows where one event affects many positions.
Net Exposure
Add up how your portfolio gains or loses under each main scenario. The total matters more than any single position.
Consistency Checks
Use related markets to test your own estimates. If your numbers imply impossible combinations, revise them.
Worked Example
A trader holds YES on a team winning its semi-final at 55¢ and YES on the same team winning the final at 30¢. If the team loses the semi-final, both positions lose. Mapping scenarios shows most of the risk sits on one match, so they reduce the final position.
Key Takeaways
- Map how markets depend on each other.
- Measure results per scenario, not per trade.
- Keep your estimates internally consistent.
- Concentrated scenarios need smaller sizes.