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Venezuela de facto leader end of 2026?

{name}: πιθανότητες σε πραγματικό χρόνο

  • Delcy Rodríguez

    • Yes95%
    • No5%

    Volume $122.5K · Liquidity $30.1K

  • No Head of State

    • Yes0%
    • No100%

    Volume $71.4K · Liquidity $30.4K

  • Vladimir Padrino López

    • Yes0%
    • No100%

    Volume $68.5K · Liquidity $24.2K

  • María Corina Machado

    • Yes3%
    • No97%

    Volume $55.5K · Liquidity $46.4K

  • Frank Donovan

    • Yes0%
    • No100%

    Volume $42.3K · Liquidity $23.7K

  • Jorge Rodríguez

    • Yes0%
    • No100%

    Volume $10.2K · Liquidity $35.1K

  • Richard Grenell

    • Yes0%
    • No100%

    Volume $7.9K · Liquidity $24.9K

  • Diosdado Cabello Rondón

    • Yes0%
    • No100%

    Volume $7.9K · Liquidity $35K

  • Marco Rubio

    • Yes2%
    • No98%

    Volume $7.7K · Liquidity $34.4K

  • Evan Pettus

    • Yes0%
    • No100%

    Volume $7.6K · Liquidity $25K

  • Nicolás Maduro

    • Yes0%
    • No100%

    Volume $7K · Liquidity $45.1K

  • Dinorah Figuera

    • Yes1%
    • No99%

    Volume $6.2K · Liquidity $32K

  • Edmundo González

    • Yes2%
    • No98%

    Volume $5.5K · Liquidity $31.2K

  • Dan Caine

    • Yes0%
    • No100%

    Volume $3.3K · Liquidity $20.5K

  • Donald Trump

    • Yes0%
    • No100%

    Volume $3.2K · Liquidity $24K

  • Pete Hegseth

    • Yes0%
    • No100%

    Volume $3.1K · Liquidity $22.9K

  • Person O

    • Yes—
    • No—

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Person T

    • Yes—
    • No—

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Person U

    • Yes—
    • No—

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Person V

    • Yes—
    • No—

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Person W

    • Yes—
    • No—

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Person X

    • Yes—
    • No—

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Person Y

    • Yes—
    • No—

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Person Z

    • Yes—
    • No—

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Person J

    • Yes—
    • No—

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Person K

    • Yes—
    • No—

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Person L

    • Yes—
    • No—

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Person M

    • Yes—
    • No—

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Person N

    • Yes—
    • No—

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Person P

    • Yes—
    • No—

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Person Q

    • Yes—
    • No—

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Person R

    • Yes—
    • No—

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Person S

    • Yes—
    • No—

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Other

    • Yes—
    • No—

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Person A

    • Yes—
    • No—

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Person B

    • Yes—
    • No—

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Person C

    • Yes—
    • No—

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Person D

    • Yes—
    • No—

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Person E

    • Yes—
    • No—

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Person F

    • Yes—
    • No—

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Person G

    • Yes—
    • No—

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Person H

    • Yes—
    • No—

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Person I

    • Yes—
    • No—

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

Κανόνες καθορισμού του αποτελέσματος

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Venezuelan state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Venezuela’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.

Πώς να ερμηνεύσεις αυτές τις πιθανότητες

Κάθε τιμή κυμαίνεται από $0 έως $1 και μπορεί να ερμηνευτεί ως η πιθανότητα που αποδίδει η αγορά σε ένα ενδεχόμενο: η τιμή $0.62 αντιστοιχεί σε πιθανότητα περίπου 62%. Οι τιμές αλλάζουν με κάθε συναλλαγή, επομένως αποτελούν συλλογική εκτίμηση και όχι εγγύηση. Πριν κάνεις συναλλαγές, έλεγξε τους παραπάνω κανόνες καθορισμού του αποτελέσματος, τον όγκο συναλλαγών και τη ρευστότητα. Ρίσκαρε μόνο χρήματα που αντέχεις οικονομικά να χάσεις.

Εργαλεία υπολογισμού πιθανοτήτων · Γλωσσάρι · Δωρεάν μαθήματα

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