Iran leader end of 2026?
{name}: πιθανότητες σε πραγματικό χρόνο
Mojtaba Khamenei
- Yes86%
- No14%
Volume $6.8M · Liquidity $60.2K
Mohammad Khatami
- Yes0%
- No100%
Volume $5.2M · Liquidity $61.6K
Seyed Hossein Mousavian
- Yes0%
- No100%
Volume $3.7M · Liquidity $58.6K
Mostafa Pourmohammadi
- Yes0%
- No100%
Volume $3.4M · Liquidity $60.5K
Hassan Shariatmadari
- Yes0%
- No100%
Volume $3.2M · Liquidity $58.9K
Alireza Arafi
- Yes3%
- No97%
Volume $2.3M · Liquidity $63.9K
Hassan Khomeini
- Yes0%
- No100%
Volume $1.5M · Liquidity $63.6K
No Head of State
- Yes5%
- No95%
Volume $1.2M · Liquidity $58.3K
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad
- Yes0%
- No100%
Volume $1.1M · Liquidity $51.5K
Masoud Pezeshkian
- Yes0%
- No100%
Volume $1M · Liquidity $58K
Hassan Rouhani
- Yes1%
- No100%
Volume $953K · Liquidity $68K
Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf
- Yes0%
- No100%
Volume $927.7K · Liquidity $61.2K
Maryam Rajavi
- Yes0%
- No100%
Volume $906.7K · Liquidity $55.1K
Ali Motahari
- Yes0%
- No100%
Volume $860.2K · Liquidity $55.3K
Abbas Araghchi
- Yes0%
- No100%
Volume $838.6K · Liquidity $64.8K
Ahmad Vahidi
- Yes0%
- No100%
Volume $785.9K · Liquidity $57K
Reza Pahlavi
- Yes3%
- No97%
Volume $708.9K · Liquidity $129.9K
Sadegh Larijani
- Yes0%
- No100%
Volume $586.4K · Liquidity $84.1K
Muhammad Mirbaqiri
- Yes0%
- No100%
Volume $474.9K · Liquidity $68.7K
Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel
- Yes0%
- No100%
Volume $442.6K · Liquidity $71.8K
Massoud Rajavi
- Yes0%
- No100%
Volume $436.6K · Liquidity $74.2K
Saeed Jalili
- Yes0%
- No100%
Volume $425K · Liquidity $65K
Ali Asghar Hejazi
- Yes0%
- No100%
Volume $378.3K · Liquidity $62.2K
Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani
- Yes0%
- No100%
Volume $333.1K · Liquidity $58.6K
Mohsen Araki
- Yes0%
- No100%
Volume $324.8K · Liquidity $66.5K
Nasir Hosseini
- Yes0%
- No100%
Volume $300.7K · Liquidity $67.8K
Sadegh Mahsouli
- Yes0%
- No100%
Volume $275.8K · Liquidity $68.8K
Navid Shomali
- Yes0%
- No100%
Volume $259.8K · Liquidity $72.7K
Mustafa Hijri
- Yes0%
- No100%
Volume $239.4K · Liquidity $65K
Ali Larijani
Closed- Yes0%
- No100%
Volume $236.9K · Liquidity —
Reza Pirzadeh
- Yes0%
- No100%
Volume $187.8K · Liquidity $71.3K
cf
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ay
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ah
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o
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t
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p
- Yes—
- No—
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cl
- Yes—
- No—
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Mohammad Pakpour
Closed- Yes0%
- No100%
Volume — · Liquidity —
al
- Yes—
- No—
Volume $0 · Liquidity $0
an
- Yes—
- No—
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cm
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- No—
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Κανόνες καθορισμού του αποτελέσματος
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Πώς να ερμηνεύσεις αυτές τις πιθανότητες
Κάθε τιμή κυμαίνεται από $0 έως $1 και μπορεί να ερμηνευτεί ως η πιθανότητα που αποδίδει η αγορά σε ένα ενδεχόμενο: η τιμή $0.62 αντιστοιχεί σε πιθανότητα περίπου 62%. Οι τιμές αλλάζουν με κάθε συναλλαγή, επομένως αποτελούν συλλογική εκτίμηση και όχι εγγύηση. Πριν κάνεις συναλλαγές, έλεγξε τους παραπάνω κανόνες καθορισμού του αποτελέσματος, τον όγκο συναλλαγών και τη ρευστότητα. Ρίσκαρε μόνο χρήματα που αντέχεις οικονομικά να χάσεις.
Εργαλεία υπολογισμού πιθανοτήτων · Γλωσσάρι · Δωρεάν μαθήματα
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