Zum Inhalt springen

Who will launch a Muse-like personal agent before 2027?

{name}: aktuelle Wahrscheinlichkeiten

  • Anthropic

    • Yes10%
    • No91%

    Volume $10.2K · Liquidity $3K

  • Microsoft

    • Yes33%
    • No68%

    Volume $5.3K · Liquidity $2.4K

  • Perplexity

    • Yes16%
    • No85%

    Volume $5K · Liquidity $1.9K

  • Amazon

    • Yes13%
    • No88%

    Volume $2.3K · Liquidity $2.9K

Regeln zur Ergebnisfeststellung

On September 8, 2026, Meta launched Muse, a personal AI agent that runs on a cloud computer dedicated to each user and carries out tasks, such as sending email and booking travel ( This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company launches a Muse-like personal agent by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A Muse-like personal agent is an AI agent that runs on a cloud computer provided by the listed company that is dedicated to the individual user and remains assigned to that user between tasks, can begin tasks on its own, such as on a schedule or when a new email arrives, and can take actions on websites or in the user's connected accounts, such as sending email or submitting forms. Computing environments created for each task or session will not qualify. Products limited to a single type of task, such as coding, software development, email, or travel booking, offered only through an API, or sold only to businesses will not qualify. A Muse-like personal agent must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. Availability limited to paid subscription plans or to certain countries will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed company, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

So liest du diese Wahrscheinlichkeiten

Jeder Preis liegt zwischen 0 und 1 US-Dollar und lässt sich als die Wahrscheinlichkeit interpretieren, die der Markt einem Ergebnis zuschreibt: 0,62 US-Dollar entsprechen etwa 62 %. Die Preise ändern sich mit jedem Handel. Sie spiegeln also die gemeinsame Einschätzung der Marktteilnehmer wider und sind keine Garantie. Prüfe vor dem Handel die oben genannten Regeln zur Ergebnisfeststellung, das Handelsvolumen und die Liquidität. Riskiere nur Geld, dessen Verlust du dir leisten kannst.

Wahrscheinlichkeitsrechner · Glossar · Kostenlose Kurse