Highest OpenAI score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
{name}: aktuelle Wahrscheinlichkeiten
60%+
- Yes39%
- No61%
Volume $52.3K · Liquidity $1.7K
55%+
- Yes81%
- No20%
Volume $38K · Liquidity $1.8K
65%+
- Yes23%
- No77%
Volume $20.5K · Liquidity $2.8K
50%+
Closed- Yes100%
- No0%
Volume $17.3K · Liquidity —
70%+
- Yes7%
- No93%
Volume $6K · Liquidity $3K
Regeln zur Ergebnisfeststellung
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model published by OpenAI achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric. The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
So liest du diese Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Jeder Preis liegt zwischen 0 und 1 US-Dollar und lässt sich als die Wahrscheinlichkeit interpretieren, die der Markt einem Ergebnis zuschreibt: 0,62 US-Dollar entsprechen etwa 62 %. Die Preise ändern sich mit jedem Handel. Sie spiegeln also die gemeinsame Einschätzung der Marktteilnehmer wider und sind keine Garantie. Prüfe vor dem Handel die oben genannten Regeln zur Ergebnisfeststellung, das Handelsvolumen und die Liquidität. Riskiere nur Geld, dessen Verlust du dir leisten kannst.
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