Politică Prediction Markets
Alegeri, legislație și evenimente politice evaluate de piață.
Data from Polymarket, updated ….
Fiecare preț variază între 0 și 1 dolar și poate fi interpretat ca probabilitatea pe care piața o atribuie unui rezultat: 0,62 dolari înseamnă aproximativ 62%. Prețurile se schimbă cu fiecare tranzacție, așa că reprezintă o estimare colectivă, nu o garanție. Înainte de a tranzacționa, verifică regulile de stabilire a rezultatului de mai sus, volumul tranzacțiilor și lichiditatea și riscă doar bani pe care îți permiți să îi pierzi.
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
October 12: 100%
24h vol $884.2K · Ends 31 oct. 2026
US-Yemen ceasefire continues through...?
October 12: 100%
24h vol $846.7K · Ends 31 oct. 2026
Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
Democrats Sweep: 62%
24h vol $796.9K · Ends 4 nov. 2026
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 18%
24h vol $730.7K · Ends 8 nov. 2028
Next French Presidential Election
Marine Le Pen: 42%
24h vol $598.7K · Ends 19 apr. 2027
Elon Musk # tweets October 6 - October 13, 2026?
340-359: 69%
24h vol $571.4K · Ends 13 oct. 2026
Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23?
No Hormuz Agreement: 89%
24h vol $476.2K · Ends 4 nov. 2026
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?
December 31: 5%
24h vol $461.4K · Ends 1 ian. 2027
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
No: 83%
24h vol $397.2K · Ends 1 ian. 2027
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
March 31: 67%
24h vol $292.4K · Ends 1 ian. 2027
Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Gadi Eizenkot: 46%
24h vol $283.7K · Ends 28 oct. 2026
Brazil Presidential Election
Flávio Bolsonaro: 87%
24h vol $187.9K · Ends 26 oct. 2026
Presidential Election Winner 2028
JD Vance: 22%
24h vol $174.9K · Ends 8 nov. 2028
Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory
Other: 50%
24h vol $164.6K · Ends 26 oct. 2026
Elon Musk # tweets October 9 - October 16, 2026?
220-239: 26%
24h vol $153.7K · Ends 16 oct. 2026
Serbia Parliamentary Election Winner
Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia: 63%
24h vol $141.5K · Ends 25 oct. 2026
Next Prime Minister of Serbia?
Aleksandar Vučić: 71%
24h vol $120.7K · Ends 26 oct. 2026
Which party will win the House in 2026?
Democratic Party: 91%
24h vol $120.3K · Ends 4 nov. 2026
Texas Senate Election Winner
James Talarico (D): 63%
24h vol $115.9K · Ends 4 nov. 2026
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.: 49%
24h vol $79.1K · Ends 8 nov. 2028
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?
December 31: 17%
24h vol $69K · Ends 1 ian. 2027
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
No: 94%
24h vol $68.1K · Ends 1 ian. 2027
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
No: 98%
24h vol $66.3K · Ends 1 ian. 2027
Ohio enacts data center moratorium by...?
December 31, 2028: 27%
24h vol $66K · Ends 1 ian. 2029
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?
June 30, 2027: 9%
24h vol $65K · Ends 1 iul. 2027
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?
No: 68%
24h vol $58.2K · Ends 1 aug. 2027
California Governor Election Winner
Xavier Becerra: 96%
24h vol $55.7K · Ends 4 nov. 2026
Next leader out of power before 2027?
None before 2027: 48%
24h vol $51.3K · Ends 1 ian. 2027
US imports Russian diesel by October 31?
No: 77%
24h vol $46.4K · Ends 1 nov. 2026
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...?
June 30, 2027: 56%
24h vol $45.4K · Ends 1 ian. 2027
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...?
December 31, 2027: 46%
24h vol $45.2K · Ends 1 ian. 2027
Taipei Mayor Election Winner
Chiang Wan-an: 66%
24h vol $45K · Ends 29 nov. 2026
Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement before the midterms?
No Hormuz Agreement: 84%
24h vol $42.7K · Ends 4 nov. 2026
Missouri enacts data center moratorium by...?
December 31, 2028: 26%
24h vol $39.1K · Ends 1 ian. 2029
Elon Musk # tweets October 12 - October 14, 2026?
40-64: 56%
24h vol $38.6K · Ends 14 oct. 2026
Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by...?
December 31: 48%
24h vol $38.4K · Ends 1 ian. 2027
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
December 31, 2027: 67%
24h vol $38.2K · Ends 1 iul. 2027
Venezuela leader end of 2026?
Nicolás Maduro: 71%
24h vol $36.9K · Ends 1 ian. 2027
Iran leadership change by...?
June 30, 2027: 22%
24h vol $34.7K · Ends 1 iul. 2027
Which party will win the Senate in 2026?
Democratic Party: 64%
24h vol $34.2K · Ends 4 nov. 2026
Saudi airspace closed by...?
December 31: 18%
24h vol $34.1K · Ends 1 ian. 2027
Michigan Senate Election Winner
Abdul El-Sayed (D): 71%
24h vol $33.1K · Ends 4 nov. 2026
Modi out by December 31, 2026?
No: 96%
24h vol $28.8K · Ends 1 ian. 2027
Israel Election: Likud # of seats?
20-24: 43%
24h vol $28.7K · Ends 28 oct. 2026
Next Prime Minister of Spain?
Alberto Núñez Feijóo: 80%
24h vol $27K · Ends 1 apr. 2028
Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23 and oil below $80 before the midterms?
No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate: 62%
24h vol $25.3K · Ends 4 nov. 2026
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
No: 86%
24h vol $25K · Ends 1 ian. 2027
Next Prime Minister of Romania?
Luca Niculescu: 57%
24h vol $25K · Ends 1 ian. 2028