Which Senate Swing States will Republicans win?
{name}: probabilidades em tempo real
IA
- Yes7%
- No93%
Volume $3.8K · Liquidity $15.1K
All 7
- Yes4%
- No96%
Volume $3.2K · Liquidity $27.2K
MI
- Yes2%
- No98%
Volume $2.2K · Liquidity $23.2K
IA, KS
- Yes21%
- No80%
Volume $1.8K · Liquidity $1.2K
KS
- Yes6%
- No94%
Volume $1.6K · Liquidity $14.9K
IA, KS, ME, OH, TX
- Yes3%
- No97%
Volume $1.4K · Liquidity $23.8K
AK, IA, ME, OH, TX
- Yes2%
- No98%
Volume $967.4 · Liquidity $31.1K
AK, IA
- Yes1%
- No99%
Volume $892.3 · Liquidity $13.7K
AK, IA, KS, ME, MI
- Yes1%
- No99%
Volume $872.9 · Liquidity $23.5K
None
- Yes25%
- No76%
Volume $856.3 · Liquidity $33.2K
IA, OH
- Yes1%
- No99%
Volume $766.1 · Liquidity $10.7K
IA, ME, MI
- Yes1%
- No100%
Volume $686.3 · Liquidity $10.9K
AK, IA, KS
- Yes2%
- No98%
Volume $674.1 · Liquidity $26.6K
AK, ME
- Yes0%
- No100%
Volume $668.6 · Liquidity $10.9K
IA, KS, ME, OH
- Yes2%
- No98%
Volume $654.6 · Liquidity $25K
AK, IA, KS, MI, OH, TX
- Yes1%
- No100%
Volume $609.2 · Liquidity $10.8K
IA, MI, OH
- Yes1%
- No99%
Volume $599.4 · Liquidity $10.8K
KS, OH
- Yes1%
- No99%
Volume $557.9 · Liquidity $11K
AK, OH, TX
- Yes1%
- No99%
Volume $550.4 · Liquidity $10.9K
IA, ME, TX
- Yes2%
- No98%
Volume $544.1 · Liquidity $26.5K
ME, MI, TX
- Yes2%
- No98%
Volume $531.5 · Liquidity $20.8K
ME
- Yes1%
- No99%
Volume $521.6 · Liquidity $10.8K
KS, MI, OH
- Yes2%
- No98%
Volume $519.4 · Liquidity $21.1K
IA, ME, MI, OH, TX
- Yes0%
- No100%
Volume $519.1 · Liquidity $10.8K
IA, KS, ME
- Yes2%
- No98%
Volume $516.7 · Liquidity $21.2K
AK, IA, KS, OH, TX
- Yes1%
- No99%
Volume $506.4 · Liquidity $10.9K
AK, KS, OH
- Yes1%
- No100%
Volume $501.4 · Liquidity $10.9K
ME, OH, TX
- Yes1%
- No100%
Volume $484.4 · Liquidity $10.9K
AK, IA, KS, ME, MI, TX
- Yes4%
- No96%
Volume $466.7 · Liquidity $740.5
KS, ME
- Yes1%
- No99%
Volume $463.4 · Liquidity $10.8K
AK, IA, TX
- Yes11%
- No89%
Volume $462.9 · Liquidity $1.3K
AK, IA, ME, TX
- Yes0%
- No100%
Volume $454.6 · Liquidity $10.9K
AK, IA, KS, MI, OH
- Yes0%
- No100%
Volume $445.4 · Liquidity $10.9K
AK
- Yes0%
- No100%
Volume $435.4 · Liquidity $11K
AK, ME, MI
- Yes1%
- No99%
Volume $433.9 · Liquidity $11K
AK, IA, MI, OH, TX
- Yes1%
- No99%
Volume $426.4 · Liquidity $11K
ME, OH
- Yes1%
- No100%
Volume $424.8 · Liquidity $11.1K
MI, TX
- Yes1%
- No99%
Volume $421.8 · Liquidity $10.9K
ME, MI, OH, TX
- Yes2%
- No98%
Volume $409.6 · Liquidity $26K
AK, MI, TX
- Yes0%
- No100%
Volume $408.9 · Liquidity $10.9K
IA, KS, MI, TX
- Yes1%
- No99%
Volume $405.3 · Liquidity $11K
AK, KS
- Yes1%
- No99%
Volume $404.2 · Liquidity $10.9K
AK, MI, OH
- Yes1%
- No100%
Volume $401 · Liquidity $11K
AK, ME, TX
- Yes1%
- No99%
Volume $399.8 · Liquidity $10.9K
KS, ME, OH, TX
- Yes2%
- No98%
Volume $399.4 · Liquidity $23.7K
IA, KS, MI
- Yes1%
- No100%
Volume $399.2 · Liquidity $10.9K
ME, MI
- Yes1%
- No100%
Volume $393 · Liquidity $10.9K
IA, ME
- Yes1%
- No100%
Volume $392.4 · Liquidity $10.7K
IA, KS, TX
- Yes0%
- No100%
Volume $390.5 · Liquidity $10.9K
AK, ME, OH, TX
- Yes1%
- No99%
Volume $381.5 · Liquidity $10.9K
IA, MI, OH, TX
- Yes1%
- No99%
Volume $373.7 · Liquidity $11K
IA, MI
- Yes3%
- No97%
Volume $373.6 · Liquidity $23.8K
ME, MI, OH
- Yes1%
- No100%
Volume $371.9 · Liquidity $10.9K
IA, KS, ME, MI, OH, TX
- Yes1%
- No99%
Volume $369.2 · Liquidity $11K
AK, KS, ME, OH
- Yes1%
- No99%
Volume $365.6 · Liquidity $11K
KS, ME, MI, TX
- Yes1%
- No99%
Volume $365.4 · Liquidity $10.9K
IA, TX
- Yes2%
- No98%
Volume $362 · Liquidity $30.4K
AK, KS, ME, MI
- Yes1%
- No99%
Volume $359 · Liquidity $24.6K
IA, KS, ME, MI, TX
- Yes3%
- No97%
Volume $358.5 · Liquidity $18.9K
IA, KS, ME, MI
- Yes1%
- No99%
Volume $357.8 · Liquidity $10.9K
AK, IA, KS, ME, MI, OH
- Yes0%
- No100%
Volume $356.8 · Liquidity $10.9K
AK, IA, ME, MI, OH, TX
- Yes1%
- No99%
Volume $354.5 · Liquidity $11.1K
AK, KS, ME, MI, OH
- Yes1%
- No99%
Volume $351.8 · Liquidity $11K
AK, IA, KS, TX
- Yes1%
- No99%
Volume $351.5 · Liquidity $11K
AK, KS, OH, TX
- Yes1%
- No99%
Volume $348.8 · Liquidity $10.9K
AK, ME, OH
- Yes1%
- No99%
Volume $343.6 · Liquidity $10.9K
IA, KS, OH, TX
- Yes0%
- No100%
Volume $343.6 · Liquidity $10.8K
AK, KS, MI, OH, TX
- Yes0%
- No100%
Volume $342.1 · Liquidity $10.9K
AK, MI, OH, TX
- Yes1%
- No99%
Volume $338.3 · Liquidity $10.8K
OH, TX
- Yes1%
- No99%
Volume $337.3 · Liquidity $18.7K
AK, ME, MI, TX
- Yes2%
- No98%
Volume $336.6 · Liquidity $27.6K
AK, IA, MI, TX
- Yes1%
- No99%
Volume $334.1 · Liquidity $11K
AK, KS, ME, TX
- Yes1%
- No99%
Volume $327.3 · Liquidity $11K
AK, KS, MI
- Yes1%
- No99%
Volume $322.4 · Liquidity $11.3K
IA, MI, TX
- Yes1%
- No99%
Volume $320.3 · Liquidity $10.9K
AK, KS, MI, OH
- Yes0%
- No100%
Volume $319.8 · Liquidity $10.9K
AK, KS, MI, TX
- Yes0%
- No100%
Volume $318.5 · Liquidity $10.9K
IA, KS, MI, OH, TX
- Yes1%
- No99%
Volume $317.1 · Liquidity $10.8K
AK, ME, MI, OH, TX
- Yes0%
- No100%
Volume $316.1 · Liquidity $10.7K
AK, IA, ME, MI, TX
- Yes1%
- No100%
Volume $315.4 · Liquidity $10.9K
MI, OH
- Yes1%
- No99%
Volume $314.7 · Liquidity $11.1K
IA, KS, MI, OH
- Yes1%
- No99%
Volume $312.4 · Liquidity $11.1K
AK, IA, KS, ME, OH
- Yes1%
- No100%
Volume $310.1 · Liquidity $11K
KS, ME, OH
- Yes1%
- No99%
Volume $305.9 · Liquidity $10.8K
MI, OH, TX
- Yes0%
- No100%
Volume $305.3 · Liquidity $11K
AK, IA, ME, OH
- Yes1%
- No99%
Volume $304.5 · Liquidity $11K
AK, IA, KS, ME
- Yes1%
- No99%
Volume $304.1 · Liquidity $10.9K
AK, ME, MI, OH
- Yes1%
- No99%
Volume $302.1 · Liquidity $26.7K
AK, IA, MI, OH
- Yes2%
- No98%
Volume $297.9 · Liquidity $26.3K
TX
- Yes2%
- No98%
Volume $297.5 · Liquidity $25.8K
AK, KS, TX
- Yes1%
- No99%
Volume $297.1 · Liquidity $10.8K
AK, IA, KS, OH
- Yes3%
- No97%
Volume $293.2 · Liquidity $25.2K
AK, IA, OH, TX
- Yes0%
- No100%
Volume $293.2 · Liquidity $10.9K
AK, IA, ME, MI
- Yes1%
- No99%
Volume $285.9 · Liquidity $11K
AK, KS, ME, OH, TX
- Yes2%
- No98%
Volume $280.5 · Liquidity $26.4K
AK, IA, ME, MI, OH
- Yes1%
- No99%
Volume $275.4 · Liquidity $11K
KS, MI
- Yes0%
- No100%
Volume $275.3 · Liquidity $11.2K
KS, OH, TX
- Yes0%
- No100%
Volume $274.7 · Liquidity $10.8K
ME, TX
- Yes2%
- No98%
Volume $274.2 · Liquidity $25.8K
AK, MI
- Yes0%
- No100%
Volume $274.2 · Liquidity $11K
KS, MI, TX
- Yes0%
- No100%
Volume $272.7 · Liquidity $11K
AK, TX
- Yes1%
- No100%
Volume $271.3 · Liquidity $10.9K
AK, KS, ME, MI, OH, TX
- Yes0%
- No100%
Volume $269.5 · Liquidity $11K
AK, IA, KS, MI
- Yes1%
- No99%
Volume $269.2 · Liquidity $11K
KS, ME, MI, OH, TX
- Yes2%
- No98%
Volume $269.2 · Liquidity $26.2K
IA, ME, OH, TX
- Yes2%
- No98%
Volume $269.2 · Liquidity $24.6K
KS, ME, MI
- Yes1%
- No100%
Volume $269.2 · Liquidity $10.8K
AK, IA, MI
- Yes0%
- No100%
Volume $268.9 · Liquidity $10.9K
AK, IA, KS, ME, OH, TX
- Yes1%
- No99%
Volume $265.1 · Liquidity $11K
KS, ME, TX
- Yes1%
- No100%
Volume $262.1 · Liquidity $10.8K
KS, MI, OH, TX
- Yes1%
- No99%
Volume $260.8 · Liquidity $10.9K
AK, IA, ME
- Yes1%
- No99%
Volume $259.1 · Liquidity $10.9K
IA, ME, OH
- Yes1%
- No99%
Volume $258.1 · Liquidity $11K
AK, KS, ME, MI, TX
- Yes2%
- No99%
Volume $255.7 · Liquidity $23.8K
KS, ME, MI, OH
- Yes1%
- No99%
Volume $255.3 · Liquidity $11K
AK, IA, KS, ME, TX
- Yes1%
- No100%
Volume $255.3 · Liquidity $11K
AK, IA, KS, MI, TX
- Yes1%
- No99%
Volume $254.6 · Liquidity $11K
KS, TX
- Yes1%
- No99%
Volume $244.8 · Liquidity $25.7K
IA, KS, ME, MI, OH
- Yes0%
- No100%
Volume $242.7 · Liquidity $10.9K
IA, OH, TX
- Yes0%
- No100%
Volume $234.8 · Liquidity $10.9K
AK, KS, ME
- Yes0%
- No100%
Volume $227.3 · Liquidity $11K
IA, KS, OH
- Yes1%
- No99%
Volume $224.6 · Liquidity $23K
IA, ME, MI, OH
- Yes1%
- No99%
Volume $221.2 · Liquidity $11K
IA, ME, MI, TX
- Yes3%
- No97%
Volume $216.3 · Liquidity $24.8K
AK, IA, OH
- Yes1%
- No99%
Volume $216.3 · Liquidity $10.9K
AK, OH
- Yes1%
- No99%
Volume $216.3 · Liquidity $10.8K
IA, KS, ME, TX
- Yes1%
- No100%
Volume $214.2 · Liquidity $11K
OH
- Yes2%
- No99%
Volume $138.9 · Liquidity $29.2K
Regras de resolução
This market will resolve according to which of the United States Senate general elections in Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio (special election), and Texas, currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, are won by the Republican candidate, inclusive of any potential runoffs. Each listed outcome names the exact set of these states in which the Republican candidate wins. An outcome will resolve to "Yes" only if the Republican candidate wins every state it names and does not win any of the other states covered by this market. A state counts as not won by the Republican candidate if any other candidate wins it, including a Democratic, independent, or third-party candidate, or if its results cannot be determined by March 31, 2027. A candidate will be considered to represent the Republican Party by their ballot-listed affiliation or if they are the nominee of the Republican Party. Candidates who run as independents will not be considered to represent the Republican Party regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called the relevant elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Como interpretar essas probabilidades
Cada preço varia de US$ 0 a US$ 1 e pode ser interpretado como a probabilidade que o mercado atribui a um resultado: US$ 0,62 significa aproximadamente 62%. Os preços mudam a cada negociação, então representam uma estimativa coletiva, não uma garantia. Antes de negociar, confira as regras de resolução acima, o volume e a liquidez, e arrisque apenas o dinheiro que você pode perder sem comprometer suas finanças.
Calculadoras de probabilidade · Glossário · Cursos gratuitos
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