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Next leader out of power before 2027?

{name}: probabilidades em tempo real

  • None before 2027

    • Yes48%
    • No53%

    Volume $178.4K · Liquidity $58.9K

  • Netanyahu - Israel PM

    • Yes25%
    • No75%

    Volume $164.1K · Liquidity $28.3K

  • Sánchez - Spanish PM

    • Yes14%
    • No86%

    Volume $46.5K · Liquidity $37.3K

  • Lula da Silva - Brazil President

    • Yes1%
    • No99%

    Volume $40.2K · Liquidity $31.2K

  • Xi - General Secretary of the CCP

    • Yes1%
    • No100%

    Volume $36.8K · Liquidity $32.4K

  • Merz - German Chancellor

    • Yes1%
    • No99%

    Volume $36.4K · Liquidity $24.8K

  • Zelenskyy - Ukraine President

    • Yes3%
    • No97%

    Volume $31.9K · Liquidity $31.9K

  • Trump - USA President

    • Yes1%
    • No99%

    Volume $31.4K · Liquidity $30.3K

  • Lecornu - France PM

    • Yes5%
    • No95%

    Volume $31.3K · Liquidity $24.3K

  • Macron - France President

    • Yes1%
    • No99%

    Volume $30.9K · Liquidity $30.8K

  • Díaz-Canel - Cuba President

    • Yes2%
    • No99%

    Volume $30K · Liquidity $28.1K

  • Erdoğan - Türkiye President

    • Yes1%
    • No99%

    Volume $29.8K · Liquidity $27.2K

  • Newsom - California Governor

    • Yes0%
    • No100%

    Volume $29.8K · Liquidity $27.1K

  • Albanese - Australia PM

    • Yes0%
    • No100%

    Volume $29.5K · Liquidity $27.2K

  • Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea

    • Yes0%
    • No100%

    Volume $28.5K · Liquidity $27.7K

  • Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President

    • Yes1%
    • No100%

    Volume $27.4K · Liquidity $30.4K

  • Abbas - President of Palestine

    • Yes1%
    • No99%

    Volume $27K · Liquidity $28.4K

  • Takaichi - Japan PM

    • Yes1%
    • No100%

    Volume $26.5K · Liquidity $26K

  • Putin - Russia President

    • Yes1%
    • No100%

    Volume $25.8K · Liquidity $37.1K

  • Sheinbaum - Mexico President

    • Yes0%
    • No100%

    Volume $25.2K · Liquidity $24.3K

  • al-Sharaa - Syria President

    • Yes1%
    • No99%

    Volume $23.7K · Liquidity $22.5K

  • Milei - Argentina President

    • Yes0%
    • No100%

    Volume $23.6K · Liquidity $25.9K

Regras de resolução

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Como interpretar essas probabilidades

Cada preço varia de US$ 0 a US$ 1 e pode ser interpretado como a probabilidade que o mercado atribui a um resultado: US$ 0,62 significa aproximadamente 62%. Os preços mudam a cada negociação, então representam uma estimativa coletiva, não uma garantia. Antes de negociar, confira as regras de resolução acima, o volume e a liquidez, e arrisque apenas o dinheiro que você pode perder sem comprometer suas finanças.

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