Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)
{name}: probabilidades em tempo real
Hike–Hike–Hike
- Yes12%
- No89%
Volume $81.4K · Liquidity $48.3K
Hike–Pause–Pause
- Yes20%
- No81%
Volume $63K · Liquidity $44K
Hike–Pause–Hike
- Yes62%
- No39%
Volume $55.9K · Liquidity $32.7K
Hike–Hike–Pause
- Yes5%
- No95%
Volume $42.8K · Liquidity $49.4K
Other
- Yes2%
- No98%
Volume $20.5K · Liquidity $46.5K
Pause–Pause–Pause
Closed- Yes0%
- No100%
Volume $15.6K · Liquidity —
Pause–Hike–Pause
Closed- Yes0%
- No100%
Volume $2.7K · Liquidity —
Pause–Pause–Hike
Closed- Yes0%
- No100%
Volume $2.1K · Liquidity —
Pause–Hike–Hike
Closed- Yes0%
- No100%
Volume $2K · Liquidity —
Regras de resolução
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other". Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
Como interpretar essas probabilidades
Cada preço varia de US$ 0 a US$ 1 e pode ser interpretado como a probabilidade que o mercado atribui a um resultado: US$ 0,62 significa aproximadamente 62%. Os preços mudam a cada negociação, então representam uma estimativa coletiva, não uma garantia. Antes de negociar, confira as regras de resolução acima, o volume e a liquidez, e arrisque apenas o dinheiro que você pode perder sem comprometer suas finanças.
Calculadoras de probabilidade · Glossário · Cursos gratuitos
Mais mercados de Economia

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24h vol $3.6K · Ends 31 de dez. de 2026

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24h vol $2.4K · Ends 1 de nov. de 2026

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Below 5.18%: 56%
24h vol $1.3K · Ends 1 de nov. de 2026

How low will 30-year Treasury yield get in October?
Below 5.55%: 70%
24h vol $1.1K · Ends 1 de nov. de 2026

Fed Decision in October?
No change: 81%
24h vol $1.3M · Ends 29 de out. de 2026

