Fed Decision in January?
{name}: probabilidades em tempo real
25 bps increase
- Yes32%
- No69%
Volume $91K · Liquidity $138.7K
No change
- Yes66%
- No35%
Volume $82.1K · Liquidity $128.8K
25 bps decrease
- Yes2%
- No98%
Volume $51.2K · Liquidity $84.8K
50+ bps decrease
- Yes1%
- No99%
Volume $38.3K · Liquidity $103.4K
50+ bps increase
- Yes2%
- No98%
Volume $35.3K · Liquidity $96.4K
Regras de resolução
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Como interpretar essas probabilidades
Cada preço varia de US$ 0 a US$ 1 e pode ser interpretado como a probabilidade que o mercado atribui a um resultado: US$ 0,62 significa aproximadamente 62%. Os preços mudam a cada negociação, então representam uma estimativa coletiva, não uma garantia. Antes de negociar, confira as regras de resolução acima, o volume e a liquidez, e arrisque apenas o dinheiro que você pode perder sem comprometer suas finanças.
Calculadoras de probabilidade · Glossário · Cursos gratuitos
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