Como usar o calculadora de valor esperado
- Enter the market price of the share.
- Enter your own honest estimate of the probability, as a percentage.
- Read the expected value per share and for your full position.
O que o resultado lhe diz
Expected value (EV) compares what you think the chance of an outcome is with the price the market charges. If you believe an event has a 70% chance and the share costs $0.62, the expected value is positive; if your estimate is lower than the price, it is negative. EV is only as good as your probability estimate, and a positive EV trade can still lose — it describes the average result over many similar decisions, not a single one.