Politikk Prediction Markets
Valg, lovgivning og politiske hendelser slik markedet priser dem.
Data from Polymarket, updated ….
Hver pris ligger mellom 0 og 1 dollar og kan tolkes som sannsynligheten markedet tillegger et utfall: 0,62 dollar tilsvarer omtrent 62 %. Prisene endrer seg med hver handel, så de gjenspeiler markedsdeltakernes samlede anslag, ikke en garanti. Før du handler, bør du sjekke reglene for avgjørelse av utfallet ovenfor, handelsvolumet og likviditeten. Ikke risiker mer penger enn du har råd til å tape.

Next Prime Minister of Romania?
Luca Niculescu: 62%
24h vol $29.5K · Ends 1. jan. 2028

Michigan Senate Election Winner
Abdul El-Sayed (D): 71%
24h vol $28.5K · Ends 4. nov. 2026

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?
No: 94%
24h vol $26.3K · Ends 1. des. 2026

Alaska Senate Election Winner
Mary Peltola: 73%
24h vol $25.2K · Ends 4. nov. 2026

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts October 6 - October 13, 2026?
120-139: 58%
24h vol $24.5K · Ends 13. okt. 2026

Next leader out of power before 2027?
None before 2027: 52%
24h vol $23.5K · Ends 1. jan. 2027

Toronto Mayoral Election Winner
Olivia Chow: 66%
24h vol $22.6K · Ends 27. okt. 2026

Trump out as President before 2027?
No: 96%
24h vol $22.5K · Ends 1. jan. 2027

Kansas Senate Election Winner
Roger Marshall (R): 64%
24h vol $21K · Ends 4. nov. 2026

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Pará
Lula: 78%
24h vol $19.4K · Ends 26. okt. 2026

2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?
Jean-Luc Mélenchon: 94%
24h vol $18.4K · Ends 1. juli 2027

OH-14 House Election Winner
David Joyce (R): 94%
24h vol $14.4K · Ends 4. nov. 2026

Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?
Marine Le Pen: 89%
24h vol $12.5K · Ends 19. apr. 2027

Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by...?
November 30: 67%
24h vol $11.9K · Ends 30. nov. 2026

Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?
Jared Kushner: 42%
24h vol $11.7K · Ends 1. jan. 2027

Israel Election: Likud # of seats?
20-24: 41%
24h vol $11.3K · Ends 28. okt. 2026

Florida Governor Election Winner
Byron Donalds (R) : 79%
24h vol $11.2K · Ends 4. nov. 2026

Texas Governor Election Winner
Greg Abbott (R): 79%
24h vol $10.5K · Ends 4. nov. 2026

Fall Elections Three-Way: Brazil, Israel, US Senate Combo
Candidate U: 50%
24h vol $10.4K · Ends 4. nov. 2026

HI-02 House Election Winner
Jill Tokuda (D): 96%
24h vol $9.8K · Ends 4. nov. 2026

How many Senate and House seats will Republicans have after the midterms?
47–49 and 193–207: 25%
24h vol $9.6K · Ends 4. nov. 2026

Israeli airspace closed by...? (Excluding Holiday Closures)
December 31: 24%
24h vol $9.6K · Ends 1. jan. 2027

Kimberly Guilfoyle out as U.S. Ambassador to Greece by...?
December 31: 78%
24h vol $9.5K · Ends 1. jan. 2027

Will Xi meet with Takaichi by...?
December 31: 76%
24h vol $9.5K · Ends 1. jan. 2027

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place Abroad
Lula: 65%
24h vol $8.8K · Ends 26. okt. 2026

WI-05 House Election Winner
Scott Fitzgerald (R): 94%
24h vol $8.8K · Ends 4. nov. 2026

Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...?
December 31, 2026: 42%
24h vol $8.4K · Ends 31. des. 2026

Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?
No: 93%
24h vol $8.1K · Ends 1. nov. 2026

Republicans win the Senate pending oil above or below $80?
Oil ≥ $80; R Senate: 30%
24h vol $8K · Ends 4. nov. 2026

Houthis enter Aden by...?
December 31: 26%
24h vol $7.8K · Ends 1. jan. 2027

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Amapá
Flavio Bolsonaro: 84%
24h vol $7.6K · Ends 26. okt. 2026

New Hampshire Senate Election Winner
Chris Pappas (D): 89%
24h vol $7.5K · Ends 4. nov. 2026

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts October 9 - October 16, 2026?
140-159: 22%
24h vol $7.1K · Ends 16. okt. 2026

US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?
Yes: 76%
24h vol $7K · Ends 4. nov. 2026

Idaho Senate Election Winner
Jim Risch (R): 95%
24h vol $6.9K · Ends 4. nov. 2026

Republican House odds hit __ by October 31?
↓ 7%: 50%
24h vol $6.7K · Ends 1. nov. 2026

Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?
No: 89%
24h vol $6.7K · Ends 1. jan. 2027

Ohio Senate Election Winner
Sherrod Brown (D): 62%
24h vol $6.3K · Ends 4. nov. 2026

NJ-02 House Election Winner
Jeff Van Drew (R): 84%
24h vol $6.2K · Ends 4. nov. 2026

