Politikk Prediction Markets
Valg, lovgivning og politiske hendelser slik markedet priser dem.
Data from Polymarket, updated ….
Hver pris ligger mellom 0 og 1 dollar og kan tolkes som sannsynligheten markedet tillegger et utfall: 0,62 dollar tilsvarer omtrent 62 %. Prisene endrer seg med hver handel, så de gjenspeiler markedsdeltakernes samlede anslag, ikke en garanti. Før du handler, bør du sjekke reglene for avgjørelse av utfallet ovenfor, handelsvolumet og likviditeten. Ikke risiker mer penger enn du har råd til å tape.

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23?
No Hormuz Agreement: 88%
24h vol $951.5K · Ends 4. nov. 2026

Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
Democrats Sweep: 62%
24h vol $950.3K · Ends 4. nov. 2026

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 18%
24h vol $848.4K · Ends 8. nov. 2028

US-Yemen ceasefire continues through...?
October 12: 99%
24h vol $773.2K · Ends 31. okt. 2026

Next French Presidential Election
Marine Le Pen: 40%
24h vol $756.4K · Ends 19. apr. 2027

US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
October 12: 99%
24h vol $711.1K · Ends 31. okt. 2026

Elon Musk # tweets October 6 - October 13, 2026?
340-359: 64%
24h vol $482.8K · Ends 13. okt. 2026

Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Gadi Eizenkot: 45%
24h vol $402.6K · Ends 28. okt. 2026

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
March 31: 67%
24h vol $371.4K · Ends 1. jan. 2027

Brazil Presidential Election
Flávio Bolsonaro: 87%
24h vol $269.1K · Ends 26. okt. 2026

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
No: 83%
24h vol $263.9K · Ends 1. jan. 2027

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?
December 31: 3%
24h vol $244.8K · Ends 1. jan. 2027

Elon Musk # tweets October 10 - October 12, 2026?
40-64: 94%
24h vol $177.5K · Ends 12. okt. 2026

Presidential Election Winner 2028
JD Vance: 20%
24h vol $167.1K · Ends 8. nov. 2028

Serbia Parliamentary Election Winner
Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia: 62%
24h vol $157.8K · Ends 25. okt. 2026

Texas Senate Election Winner
James Talarico (D): 63%
24h vol $140.8K · Ends 4. nov. 2026

Which party will win the House in 2026?
Democratic Party: 91%
24h vol $123.9K · Ends 4. nov. 2026

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
No: 86%
24h vol $110.9K · Ends 1. jan. 2027

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement before the midterms?
No Hormuz Agreement: 83%
24h vol $109.2K · Ends 4. nov. 2026

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
December 31, 2027: 67%
24h vol $104.4K · Ends 1. juli 2027

Elon Musk # tweets October 9 - October 16, 2026?
220-239: 24%
24h vol $95.1K · Ends 16. okt. 2026

Missouri enacts data center moratorium by...?
December 31, 2028: 26%
24h vol $83.1K · Ends 1. jan. 2029

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.: 49%
24h vol $76.3K · Ends 8. nov. 2028

Texas enacts data center moratorium by...?
December 31, 2028: 27%
24h vol $75.3K · Ends 1. jan. 2029

Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?
June 30, 2027: 9%
24h vol $66.6K · Ends 1. juli 2027

Ohio enacts data center moratorium by...?
December 31, 2028: 27%
24h vol $66K · Ends 1. jan. 2029

California Governor Election Winner
Xavier Becerra: 96%
24h vol $64.6K · Ends 4. nov. 2026

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
No: 94%
24h vol $61.1K · Ends 1. jan. 2027

Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?
No: 68%
24h vol $58.2K · Ends 1. aug. 2027

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory
Other: 50%
24h vol $57.6K · Ends 26. okt. 2026

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
No: 98%
24h vol $56.4K · Ends 1. jan. 2027

Saudi airspace closed by...?
December 31: 20%
24h vol $51.6K · Ends 1. jan. 2027

US imports Russian diesel by October 31?
No: 78%
24h vol $47.9K · Ends 1. nov. 2026

Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...?
June 30, 2027: 61%
24h vol $46.8K · Ends 1. jan. 2027

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?
December 31: 17%
24h vol $46.2K · Ends 1. jan. 2027

North Carolina enacts data center moratorium by...?
December 31, 2028: 28%
24h vol $46K · Ends 1. jan. 2029

Taipei Mayor Election Winner
Chiang Wan-an: 65%
24h vol $45.5K · Ends 29. nov. 2026

Republicans win the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement?
No Hormuz Agreement; R Senate: 31%
24h vol $44.3K · Ends 4. nov. 2026

Which party will win the Senate in 2026?
Democratic Party: 64%
24h vol $42.6K · Ends 4. nov. 2026

Iran leadership change by...?
June 30, 2027: 22%
24h vol $42K · Ends 1. juli 2027

Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...?
December 31: 55%
24h vol $41.9K · Ends 31. des. 2026

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?
No: 99%
24h vol $37.6K · Ends 1. nov. 2026

Venezuela leader end of 2026?
Nicolás Maduro: 72%
24h vol $32K · Ends 1. jan. 2027

Modi out by December 31, 2026?
No: 95%
24h vol $31.4K · Ends 1. jan. 2027

Next Prime Minister of Serbia?
Aleksandar Vučić: 63%
24h vol $31.4K · Ends 26. okt. 2026

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?
No: 94%
24h vol $31.1K · Ends 1. jan. 2027

Oklahoma enacts data center moratorium by...?
December 31, 2028: 26%
24h vol $30.9K · Ends 1. jan. 2029

Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by...?
December 31: 54%
24h vol $30K · Ends 1. jan. 2027

