US charges Hormuz fees by...?
{name}: aktuālās varbūtības
July 17
Closed- Yes0%
- No100%
Volume $393.6K · Liquidity —
July 31
Closed- Yes0%
- No100%
Volume $293.6K · Liquidity —
August 31
Closed- Yes0%
- No100%
Volume $181.2K · Liquidity —
December 31
- Yes3%
- No97%
Volume $136.3K · Liquidity $76.1K
Iznākuma noteikšanas noteikumi
This market will resolve "Yes" if the United States government collects a payment from any shipping company, vessel, foreign government, or other relevant entity as a fee, toll, or reimbursement for transit through the Strait of Hormuz, or for the protection of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No". Any payment amount or rate will count. Payments may be monetary or in-kind (e.g., a share of cargo or oil) and may be collected directly by the US government or by an agent, contractor, or intermediary collecting on its behalf, provided the payment is made under a US-imposed fee or a compensation arrangement. The announcement, signing, or establishment of a fee program, executive order, regulation, or collection mechanism will not by itself qualify; at least one payment must actually be received by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Payments collected by Iran or any other party acting on its own behalf will not count. Payments under preexisting obligations, including US customs duties, tariffs on goods imported into the United States, or standard port charges, will not count unless newly imposed as a condition of Strait of Hormuz transit or protection. The resolution sources will be official announcements from the government of the United States and a consensus of credible reporting.
Kā interpretēt šīs varbūtības
Katra cena ir robežās no 0 līdz 1 ASV dolāram, un to var interpretēt kā varbūtību, ko tirgus piešķir konkrētam iznākumam: 0,62 ASV dolāri nozīmē aptuveni 62%. Cenas mainās ar katru darījumu, tāpēc tās atspoguļo tirgus dalībnieku kopējo vērtējumu, nevis garantiju. Pirms tirdzniecības iepazīsties ar iepriekš norādītajiem iznākuma noteikšanas noteikumiem, pārbaudi tirdzniecības apjomu un likviditāti un riskē tikai ar naudu, ko vari atļauties zaudēt.
Vairāk tirgu par tēmu “Politika”

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
No: 80%
24h vol $195.4K · Ends 2027. g. 1. janv.

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March 31: 59%
24h vol $193.9K · Ends 2027. g. 1. janv.

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?
December 31: 18%
24h vol $71.2K · Ends 2027. g. 1. janv.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
No: 89%
24h vol $56.7K · Ends 2027. g. 1. janv.

Israeli airspace closed by...? (Excluding Holiday Closures)
December 31: 31%
24h vol $51K · Ends 2027. g. 1. janv.

Saudi airspace closed by...?
December 31: 19%
24h vol $35.2K · Ends 2027. g. 1. janv.

Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?
Jared Kushner: 33%
24h vol $25.8K · Ends 2027. g. 1. janv.

Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...?
December 31, 2026: 34%
24h vol $10.8K · Ends 2026. g. 31. dec.

US imports Russian diesel by...?
December 31: 86%
24h vol $17.9K · Ends 2026. g. 1. dec.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?
No: 95%
24h vol $8.3K · Ends 2026. g. 1. dec.

Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by...?
November 30: 62%
24h vol $15.6K · Ends 2026. g. 30. nov.

US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?
Yes: 80%
24h vol $54.5K · Ends 2026. g. 4. nov.

