France declares state of siege (martial law) by...?
{name}: aktuālās varbūtības
December 31
- Yes6%
- No94%
Volume $23.9K · Liquidity $20.8K
November 15
- Yes2%
- No98%
Volume $19.1K · Liquidity $29.9K
October 31
- Yes1%
- No99%
Volume $9.7K · Liquidity $29.5K
Iznākuma noteikšanas noteikumi
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a legally binding decree declaring a state of siege (état de siège) in France enters into effect at any point between this market's creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". To count toward resolution, the corresponding decree must explicitly constitute a "state of siege" (état de siège) as defined by Article 36 of the French Constitution and Articles L2121-1 to L2121-8 of the Defence Code (Code de la défense). Only declarations explicitly constituting a state of siege under Article 36 of the French Constitution will count. If the legal name of the state of siege changes but retains the same essential powers, it may qualify. A declaration covering any part of the territory of the French Republic, including overseas departments, regions, and collectivities, will qualify. A declaration of a state of emergency (état d'urgence) under Law No. 55-385 of April 3, 1955, a public health state of emergency (état d'urgence sanitaire), the use of exceptional powers under Article 16 of the French Constitution, or the deployment or requisition of the armed forces for domestic security operations (e.g. Opération Sentinelle) without a decree declaring a state of siege will not count. Statements that a state of siege is being considered, or informal references to "martial law", will not count unless accompanied by a qualifying decree. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Journal Officiel de la République française (legifrance.gouv.fr); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Kā interpretēt šīs varbūtības
Katra cena ir robežās no 0 līdz 1 ASV dolāram, un to var interpretēt kā varbūtību, ko tirgus piešķir konkrētam iznākumam: 0,62 ASV dolāri nozīmē aptuveni 62%. Cenas mainās ar katru darījumu, tāpēc tās atspoguļo tirgus dalībnieku kopējo vērtējumu, nevis garantiju. Pirms tirdzniecības iepazīsties ar iepriekš norādītajiem iznākuma noteikšanas noteikumiem, pārbaudi tirdzniecības apjomu un likviditāti un riskē tikai ar naudu, ko vari atļauties zaudēt.
Vairāk tirgu par tēmu “Politika”

Macron out by...?
No: 96%
24h vol $24K · Ends 2027. g. 1. janv.

Paris curfew announced by...?
October 31: 12%
24h vol $21.9K · Ends 2026. g. 1. nov.

Next French Presidential Election
Marine Le Pen: 48%
24h vol $844.8K · Ends 2027. g. 19. apr.

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
No: 96%
24h vol $175.6K · Ends 2027. g. 1. janv.

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
No: 85%
24h vol $151.3K · Ends 2027. g. 1. janv.

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
March 31: 60%
24h vol $90.6K · Ends 2027. g. 1. janv.

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?
December 31: 18%
24h vol $89K · Ends 2027. g. 1. janv.

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
No: 98%
24h vol $81.6K · Ends 2027. g. 1. janv.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
No: 88%
24h vol $62.1K · Ends 2027. g. 1. janv.

Venezuela leader end of 2026?
Nicolás Maduro: 72%
24h vol $55.8K · Ends 2027. g. 1. janv.

Next Press Secretary announced by...?
December 31: 81%
24h vol $55.2K · Ends 2027. g. 1. janv.

Trump out as President before 2027?
No: 96%
24h vol $51.4K · Ends 2027. g. 1. janv.

