Politica Prediction Markets
Elezioni, leggi ed eventi politici prezzati dal mercato.
Data from Polymarket, updated ….
Ogni prezzo varia da 0 a 1 dollaro e può essere interpretato come la probabilità che il mercato attribuisce a un esito: 0,62 dollari corrispondono a circa il 62%. I prezzi cambiano a ogni operazione, quindi rappresentano una stima collettiva, non una garanzia. Prima di fare trading, controlla le regole per la determinazione dell'esito riportate sopra, il volume degli scambi e la liquidità, e rischia solo denaro che puoi permetterti di perdere.

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement and oil below $80 before the midterms?
No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate: 59%
24h vol $22.9K · Ends 4 nov 2026

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts October 6 - October 13, 2026?
120-139: 56%
24h vol $22.7K · Ends 13 ott 2026

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?
No: 99%
24h vol $22K · Ends 1 nov 2026

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?
No: 94%
24h vol $20.5K · Ends 1 dic 2026

NY-23 House Election Winner
Nick Langworthy (R): 95%
24h vol $18.6K · Ends 4 nov 2026

MO-02 House Election Winner
Ann Wagner (R): 77%
24h vol $18.6K · Ends 4 nov 2026

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Pará
Lula: 82%
24h vol $17.2K · Ends 26 ott 2026

GA-11 House Election Winner
John Cowan (R): 96%
24h vol $16.6K · Ends 4 nov 2026

OH-14 House Election Winner
David Joyce (R): 94%
24h vol $16K · Ends 4 nov 2026

Ilhan Omar federally charged by...?
December 31: 10%
24h vol $14.8K · Ends 1 gen 2027

Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
No: 76%
24h vol $14.5K · Ends 4 nov 2026

Toronto Mayoral Election Winner
Olivia Chow: 67%
24h vol $13.4K · Ends 27 ott 2026

Ohio Senate Election Winner
Sherrod Brown (D): 62%
24h vol $12.5K · Ends 4 nov 2026

Republicans win the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement?
No Hormuz Agreement; R Senate: 31%
24h vol $12.4K · Ends 4 nov 2026

Alabama Governor Election Winner
Tommy Tuberville (R): 94%
24h vol $12.2K · Ends 4 nov 2026

Arizona Governor Election Winner
Katie Hobbs (D): 88%
24h vol $11.8K · Ends 4 nov 2026

Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
No: 97%
24h vol $11.6K · Ends 1 gen 2027

Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...?
December 31: 53%
24h vol $11.6K · Ends 31 dic 2026

House favorite on November 2 wins the election?
Yes: 92%
24h vol $11.5K · Ends 4 nov 2026

Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...?
December 31, 2026: 46%
24h vol $11.2K · Ends 31 dic 2026

Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by...?
November 30: 57%
24h vol $11.1K · Ends 30 nov 2026

Israeli airspace closed by...? (Excluding Holiday Closures)
December 31: 23%
24h vol $10.6K · Ends 1 gen 2027

Trump out as President before 2027?
No: 96%
24h vol $10.6K · Ends 1 gen 2027

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts October 9 - October 16, 2026?
140-159: 26%
24h vol $10.4K · Ends 16 ott 2026

Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?
No: 94%
24h vol $10.3K · Ends 1 nov 2026

Will the Iranian regime fall by October 31?
No: 99%
24h vol $10.3K · Ends 1 nov 2026

How many Senate and House seats will Republicans have after the midterms?
47–49 and 193–207: 25%
24h vol $10.2K · Ends 4 nov 2026

HI-02 House Election Winner
Jill Tokuda (D): 96%
24h vol $10.2K · Ends 4 nov 2026

Nebraska Senate Election Winner
Pete Ricketts (R): 73%
24h vol $10K · Ends 4 nov 2026

Kimberly Guilfoyle out as U.S. Ambassador to Greece by...?
December 31: 78%
24h vol $9.9K · Ends 1 gen 2027

Where will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place...?
No Meeting by December 31: 53%
24h vol $9.9K · Ends 31 dic 2026

Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?
Marine Le Pen: 90%
24h vol $8.7K · Ends 19 apr 2027

Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?
Steve Witkoff: 42%
24h vol $8.7K · Ends 1 gen 2027

Who wins the Senate pending oil below $85 before the midterms?
Oil ≥ $85; D Senate: 51%
24h vol $8.4K · Ends 4 nov 2026

Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by...?
No: 78%
24h vol $8.3K · Ends 1 gen 2027

Who wins the Senate pending oil above or below $80 before the midterms?
Oil ≥ $80; D Senate: 55%
24h vol $8.1K · Ends 4 nov 2026

New Hampshire Senate Election Winner
Chris Pappas (D): 89%
24h vol $7.5K · Ends 4 nov 2026

US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by...?
December 31: 39%
24h vol $7.2K · Ends 1 gen 2027

Idaho Senate Election Winner
Jim Risch (R): 95%
24h vol $7.1K · Ends 4 nov 2026

NM-02 House Election Winner
Gabe Vasquez (D): 92%
24h vol $7.1K · Ends 4 nov 2026

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place Abroad
Lula: 68%
24h vol $6.9K · Ends 26 ott 2026

NY-24 House Election Winner
Claudia Tenney (R): 97%
24h vol $6.9K · Ends 4 nov 2026

WI-05 House Election Winner
Scott Fitzgerald (R): 97%
24h vol $6.7K · Ends 4 nov 2026

TX-26 House Election Winner
Brandon Gill (R): 97%
24h vol $6.7K · Ends 4 nov 2026

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts October 13 - October 20, 2026?
200+: 19%
24h vol $6.6K · Ends 20 ott 2026

NJ-02 House Election Winner
Jeff Van Drew (R): 84%
24h vol $6.2K · Ends 4 nov 2026

Next Ministerpräsident of Sachsen-Anhalt?
Ulrich Siegmund: 78%
24h vol $6.1K · Ends 1 giu 2027

Kansas Senate Election Winner
Roger Marshall (R): 63%
24h vol $6.1K · Ends 4 nov 2026

