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ThePolyAcademy
FI

Who will be arrested before 2027?

{name}: reaaliaikaiset todennäköisyydet

  • Anthony Fauci

    • Yes7%
    • No94%

    Volume $199.3K · Liquidity $33.7K

  • Tom Homan

    • Yes7%
    • No93%

    Volume $48.1K · Liquidity $11.9K

  • Gavin Newsom

    • Yes3%
    • No97%

    Volume $42.7K · Liquidity $27.3K

  • Hillary Clinton

    • Yes1%
    • No99%

    Volume $36.5K · Liquidity $72.4K

  • John Brennan

    • Yes22%
    • No78%

    Volume $34.4K · Liquidity $12.9K

  • José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero

    • Yes4%
    • No96%

    Volume $31.5K · Liquidity $21.3K

  • Barack Obama

    • Yes2%
    • No98%

    Volume $30.8K · Liquidity $58.6K

  • James Comey

    • Yes10%
    • No90%

    Volume $20.7K · Liquidity $16K

  • Adam Schiff

    • Yes3%
    • No97%

    Volume $18.9K · Liquidity $23.7K

  • James Clapper

    • Yes6%
    • No94%

    Volume $9.6K · Liquidity $16.5K

  • Joe Biden

    • Yes1%
    • No99%

    Volume $9.1K · Liquidity $35K

  • Letitia James

    • Yes5%
    • No95%

    Volume $6.4K · Liquidity $20.4K

  • Loretta Lynch

    • Yes2%
    • No98%

    Volume $4.8K · Liquidity $38.1K

  • Benjamin Netanyahu

    • Yes4%
    • No96%

    Volume $4.5K · Liquidity $21.8K

  • Bill Clinton

    • Yes1%
    • No99%

    Volume $4.3K · Liquidity $56.4K

  • Mahmoud Khalil

    • Yes14%
    • No86%

    Volume $4.3K · Liquidity $250.2

  • Lisa Cook

    • Yes4%
    • No96%

    Volume $4.1K · Liquidity $12.4K

  • Brandon Johnson

    • Yes9%
    • No91%

    Volume $3.7K · Liquidity $15.9K

  • Pam Bondi

    • Yes6%
    • No94%

    Volume $3.6K · Liquidity $17.8K

  • Susan Rice

    • Yes6%
    • No94%

    Volume $2.3K · Liquidity $18.7K

  • Lee Jun-seok

    • Yes46%
    • No54%

    Volume $1.3K · Liquidity $602.3

  • Kash Patel

    • Yes2%
    • No98%

    Volume $626.6 · Liquidity $12.4K

  • John Kerry

    • Yes1%
    • No99%

    Volume $503.5 · Liquidity $29.3K

  • Candace Owens

    • Yes5%
    • No95%

    Volume $342.3 · Liquidity $351.3

Markkinan ratkaisusäännöt

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Näin tulkitset näitä todennäköisyyksiä

Jokainen hinta on 0–1 dollaria, ja sen voi tulkita markkinoiden arvioksi tietyn lopputuloksen todennäköisyydestä: 0,62 dollaria tarkoittaa noin 62 %:n todennäköisyyttä. Hinnat muuttuvat jokaisen kaupan myötä, joten ne kuvastavat osallistujien yhteistä arviota eivätkä takaa lopputulosta. Tarkista ennen kaupankäyntiä yllä olevat ratkaisusäännöt, kaupankäynnin volyymi ja likviditeetti. Riskiin kannattaa asettaa vain rahaa, jonka voit menettää.

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