Fed decisions (Oct-Jan)
{name}: reaaliaikaiset todennäköisyydet
Pause-Hike-Pause
- Yes56%
- No44%
Volume $19.6K · Liquidity $6.5K
Pause-Hike-Hike
- Yes13%
- No87%
Volume $7.9K · Liquidity $5.6K
Hike-Pause-Pause
- Yes4%
- No96%
Volume $716.2 · Liquidity $3.8K
Hike-Pause-Hike
- Yes3%
- No97%
Volume $657.9 · Liquidity $3.8K
Pause-Pause-Hike
- Yes4%
- No96%
Volume $517.8 · Liquidity $3.7K
Pause-Pause-Pause
- Yes10%
- No90%
Volume $488.9 · Liquidity $4.4K
Other
- Yes8%
- No93%
Volume $432 · Liquidity $4K
Hike-Hike-Pause
- Yes4%
- No96%
Volume $402.9 · Liquidity $3.8K
Hike-Hike-Hike
- Yes4%
- No96%
Volume $194 · Liquidity $4K
Markkinan ratkaisusäännöt
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: October 27 to 28; December 8 to 9; and January 26 to 27. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other". Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
Näin tulkitset näitä todennäköisyyksiä
Jokainen hinta on 0–1 dollaria, ja sen voi tulkita markkinoiden arvioksi tietyn lopputuloksen todennäköisyydestä: 0,62 dollaria tarkoittaa noin 62 %:n todennäköisyyttä. Hinnat muuttuvat jokaisen kaupan myötä, joten ne kuvastavat osallistujien yhteistä arviota eivätkä takaa lopputulosta. Tarkista ennen kaupankäyntiä yllä olevat ratkaisusäännöt, kaupankäynnin volyymi ja likviditeetti. Riskiin kannattaa asettaa vain rahaa, jonka voit menettää.
Lisää Talous-markkinoita

Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)
Hike–Pause–Hike: 62%
24h vol $16.1K · Ends 9.12.2026

Fed Decision in January?
No change: 64%
24h vol $49.7K · Ends 28.1.2027

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
0 (0 bps): 96%
24h vol $27.1K · Ends 1.1.2027

US recession by end of 2026?
No: 93%
24h vol $5.6K · Ends 31.12.2026

How high will 30-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
5.70%: 77%
24h vol $3.6K · Ends 31.12.2026

Fed Decision in December?
25 bps increase: 76%
24h vol $63.7K · Ends 10.12.2026

Another Fed rate hike in 2026?
Yes: 79%
24h vol $12.3K · Ends 10.12.2026

Swiss National Bank decision in December?
No Change: 73%
24h vol $23.6K · Ends 10.12.2026

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go in October?
5.32%: 60%
24h vol $2.5K · Ends 1.11.2026

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in October?
Below 5.18%: 62%
24h vol $1.2K · Ends 1.11.2026

How low will 30-year Treasury yield get in October?
Below 5.55%: 74%
24h vol $1.1K · Ends 1.11.2026

How high will 30-year Treasury yield go in October?
5.73%: 47%
24h vol $845.3 · Ends 1.11.2026

