Mercados de predicción de Política
Elecciones, legislación y eventos políticos valorados por la multitud.
Datos de Polymarket, actualizados ….
Solo informativo. No es asesoramiento financiero ni de apuestas. Las probabilidades reflejan precios de mercado, no certezas.
Brazil Presidential Election
Flávio Bolsonaro: 81%
Vol. 24h $1.7M · Cierra 26 oct 2026
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
October 18: 99%
Vol. 24h $1.3M · Cierra 31 oct 2026
Next French Presidential Election
Marine Le Pen: 48%
Vol. 24h $570K · Cierra 19 abr 2027
Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Gadi Eizenkot: 53%
Vol. 24h $558.7K · Cierra 28 oct 2026
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?
December 31: 5%
Vol. 24h $415.8K · Cierra 1 ene 2027
Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory
Other: 50%
Vol. 24h $413.3K · Cierra 26 oct 2026
Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
Democrats Sweep: 63%
Vol. 24h $358.7K · Cierra 4 nov 2026
Elon Musk # tweets October 13 - October 20, 2026?
340-359: 30%
Vol. 24h $352.9K · Cierra 20 oct 2026
Next Press Secretary announced by...?
December 31: 81%
Vol. 24h $271.8K · Cierra 1 ene 2027
Presidential Election Winner 2028
JD Vance: 20%
Vol. 24h $237.9K · Cierra 8 nov 2028
Elon Musk # tweets October 17 - October 19, 2026?
65-89: 53%
Vol. 24h $177K · Cierra 19 oct 2026
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
No: 96%
Vol. 24h $170.6K · Cierra 1 ene 2027
Which party will win the House in 2026?
Democratic Party: 91%
Vol. 24h $154.2K · Cierra 4 nov 2026
Elon Musk # tweets October 16 - October 23, 2026?
260-279: 18%
Vol. 24h $148.5K · Cierra 23 oct 2026
Which party will win the Senate in 2026?
Democratic Party: 65%
Vol. 24h $139.5K · Cierra 4 nov 2026
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.: 49%
Vol. 24h $116.6K · Cierra 8 nov 2028
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?
December 31: 17%
Vol. 24h $115.8K · Cierra 1 ene 2027
Serbia Parliamentary Election Winner
Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia: 69%
Vol. 24h $113.3K · Cierra 25 oct 2026
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
No: 86%
Vol. 24h $106.5K · Cierra 1 ene 2027
US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?
Yes: 79%
Vol. 24h $105.8K · Cierra 4 nov 2026
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Gavin Newsom: 15%
Vol. 24h $98.1K · Cierra 8 nov 2028
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?
No: 99%
Vol. 24h $89.7K · Cierra 1 nov 2026
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
March 31: 57%
Vol. 24h $89.3K · Cierra 1 ene 2027
Michigan Senate Election Winner
Abdul El-Sayed (D): 70%
Vol. 24h $84.1K · Cierra 4 nov 2026
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
No: 98%
Vol. 24h $83K · Cierra 1 ene 2027
Texas Senate Election Winner
James Talarico (D): 63%
Vol. 24h $76.3K · Cierra 4 nov 2026
California Governor Election Winner
Xavier Becerra: 96%
Vol. 24h $73.3K · Cierra 4 nov 2026
Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement before the midterms?
No Hormuz Agreement: 91%
Vol. 24h $63.7K · Cierra 4 nov 2026
Next Prime Minister of Romania?
Luca Niculescu: 95%
Vol. 24h $61.6K · Cierra 1 ene 2028
Venezuela leader end of 2026?
Nicolás Maduro: 72%
Vol. 24h $54.9K · Cierra 1 ene 2027
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
December 31, 2027: 69%
Vol. 24h $54.6K · Cierra 1 jul 2027
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
No: 89%
Vol. 24h $53.7K · Cierra 1 ene 2027
Who wins the Senate pending oil below $85 before the midterms?
Oil ≥ $85; D Senate: 59%
Vol. 24h $41.7K · Cierra 4 nov 2026
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
No: 76%
Vol. 24h $41.4K · Cierra 1 ene 2027
Nevada Governor Election Winner
Aaron Ford (D): 57%
Vol. 24h $40.7K · Cierra 4 nov 2026
Bulgaria Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
Iotova 20-30%: 56%
Vol. 24h $37.7K · Cierra 25 oct 2026
Putin out as President of Russia by...?
June 30, 2027: 10%
Vol. 24h $33K · Cierra 1 jul 2027
Next Press Secretary?
Candidate CB: 50%
Vol. 24h $32.5K · Cierra 1 ene 2028
NC-11 House Election Winner
Jamie Ager (D): 79%
Vol. 24h $32K · Cierra 4 nov 2026
Trump out as President before 2027?
No: 96%
Vol. 24h $31.9K · Cierra 1 ene 2027
CA-04 House Election Winner
Democratic Party: 97%
Vol. 24h $31.7K · Cierra 4 nov 2026
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
No: 96%
Vol. 24h $30K · Cierra 31 dic 2026
Israeli Legislative Election Winner
Yashar: 68%
Vol. 24h $29.7K · Cierra 28 oct 2026
Elon Musk # tweets October 20 - October 27, 2026?
280-299: 10%
Vol. 24h $27.5K · Cierra 27 oct 2026
TX-06 House Election Winner
Jake Ellzey (R): 99%
Vol. 24h $27.3K · Cierra 4 nov 2026
Nebraska Senate Election Winner
Pete Ricketts (R): 72%
Vol. 24h $27.2K · Cierra 4 nov 2026
Will Ilhan Omar be deported by...?
June 30, 2027: 15%
Vol. 24h $25.6K · Cierra 1 jul 2027
Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...?
December 31: 30%
Vol. 24h $23.6K · Cierra 31 dic 2026