Mercados de predicción de Política
Elecciones, legislación y eventos políticos valorados por la multitud.
Datos de Polymarket, actualizados ….
Solo informativo. No es asesoramiento financiero ni de apuestas. Las probabilidades reflejan precios de mercado, no certezas.
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
October 22: 92%
Vol. 24h $1.7M · Cierra 31 oct 2026
Brazil Presidential Election
Flávio Bolsonaro: 77%
Vol. 24h $932.2K · Cierra 26 oct 2026
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.: 49%
Vol. 24h $870.2K · Cierra 8 nov 2028
Next French Presidential Election
Marine Le Pen: 47%
Vol. 24h $708.9K · Cierra 19 abr 2027
Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Gadi Eizenkot: 51%
Vol. 24h $486.1K · Cierra 28 oct 2026
Elon Musk # tweets October 13 - October 20, 2026?
340-359: 62%
Vol. 24h $430K · Cierra 20 oct 2026
Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23?
No Hormuz Agreement: 90%
Vol. 24h $396K · Cierra 4 nov 2026
Paris curfew announced by...?
October 31: 100%
Vol. 24h $368.9K · Cierra 1 nov 2026
Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory
Other: 50%
Vol. 24h $365.2K · Cierra 26 oct 2026
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
March 31: 66%
Vol. 24h $352.1K · Cierra 1 ene 2027
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Gavin Newsom: 16%
Vol. 24h $348.6K · Cierra 8 nov 2028
Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
Democrats Sweep: 63%
Vol. 24h $311.1K · Cierra 4 nov 2026
US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?
Yes: 79%
Vol. 24h $236.8K · Cierra 4 nov 2026
Putin out as President of Russia by...?
June 30, 2027: 11%
Vol. 24h $232.1K · Cierra 1 jul 2027
Curfew in a major French city by...?
October 24: 100%
Vol. 24h $212.5K · Cierra 31 dic 2026
Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement before the midterms?
No Hormuz Agreement: 84%
Vol. 24h $211.8K · Cierra 4 nov 2026
Which party will win the House in 2026?
Democratic Party: 92%
Vol. 24h $207.6K · Cierra 4 nov 2026
Next Press Secretary announced by...?
December 31: 77%
Vol. 24h $167.6K · Cierra 1 ene 2027
France declares state of siege (martial law) by...?
November 15: 3%
Vol. 24h $166.8K · Cierra 1 ene 2027
Elon Musk # tweets October 16 - October 23, 2026?
240-259: 22%
Vol. 24h $164.2K · Cierra 23 oct 2026
Israeli Legislative Election Winner
Yashar: 73%
Vol. 24h $162.5K · Cierra 28 oct 2026
Presidential Election Winner 2028
JD Vance: 20%
Vol. 24h $152.8K · Cierra 8 nov 2028
Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by...?
December 31: 28%
Vol. 24h $142.8K · Cierra 1 ene 2027
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?
December 31: 5%
Vol. 24h $136.4K · Cierra 1 ene 2027
Texas Senate Election Winner
James Talarico (D): 62%
Vol. 24h $115.9K · Cierra 4 nov 2026
Who wins the Senate pending oil below $85 before the midterms?
Oil ≥ $85; D Senate: 57%
Vol. 24h $106.1K · Cierra 4 nov 2026
Next Prime Minister of Spain?
Alberto Núñez Feijóo: 81%
Vol. 24h $103.1K · Cierra 1 abr 2028
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
No: 86%
Vol. 24h $99.9K · Cierra 1 ene 2027
Alberta Independence Referendum: Margin of Victory
Remain 40–60%: 76%
Vol. 24h $98.5K · Cierra 20 oct 2026
Trump out as President before 2027?
No: 96%
Vol. 24h $85.8K · Cierra 1 ene 2027
Venezuela leader end of 2026?
Nicolás Maduro: 73%
Vol. 24h $79.4K · Cierra 1 ene 2027
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?
December 31: 12%
Vol. 24h $78.5K · Cierra 1 ene 2027
Israel Election: Likud # of seats?
<20: 40%
Vol. 24h $78.4K · Cierra 28 oct 2026
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?
No: 98%
Vol. 24h $69.7K · Cierra 1 nov 2026
Serbia Parliamentary Election Winner
Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia: 69%
Vol. 24h $69.7K · Cierra 25 oct 2026
Taipei Mayor Election Winner
Chiang Wan-an: 60%
Vol. 24h $69.6K · Cierra 29 nov 2026
Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?
Jared Kushner: 38%
Vol. 24h $67.7K · Cierra 1 ene 2027
Which party will win the Senate in 2026?
Democratic Party: 64%
Vol. 24h $67.4K · Cierra 4 nov 2026
Next leader out of power before 2027?
None before 2027: 52%
Vol. 24h $64.9K · Cierra 1 ene 2027
Ohio Senate Election Winner
Sherrod Brown (D): 65%
Vol. 24h $63.8K · Cierra 4 nov 2026
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
No: 98%
Vol. 24h $55.6K · Cierra 1 ene 2027
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
December 31, 2027: 69%
Vol. 24h $54.7K · Cierra 1 jul 2027
Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Amapá
Flavio Bolsonaro: 72%
Vol. 24h $52K · Cierra 26 oct 2026
Elon Musk # tweets October 19 - October 21, 2026?
40-64: 37%
Vol. 24h $50.1K · Cierra 21 oct 2026
Who wins the Senate pending oil above or below $80 before the midterms?
Oil ≥ $80; D Senate: 62%
Vol. 24h $49.6K · Cierra 4 nov 2026
France declares state of emergency by...?
December 31: 19%
Vol. 24h $49.6K · Cierra 1 ene 2027
South Carolina Senate Election Winner
Darline Graham Nordone (R): 85%
Vol. 24h $49.1K · Cierra 4 nov 2026
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
No: 85%
Vol. 24h $46.3K · Cierra 1 ene 2027