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Meta's Watermelon released on...?

Markets

  • No release by October 31

    • Yes28%
    • No72%

    Volume $3K · Liquidity $1.4K

  • October 20

    • Yes7%
    • No93%

    Volume $2.1K · Liquidity $898.8

  • October 31

    • Yes5%
    • No95%

    Volume $1.1K · Liquidity $638.6

  • October 28

    • Yes8%
    • No92%

    Volume $1K · Liquidity $1.1K

  • October 21

    • Yes5%
    • No95%

    Volume $742.3 · Liquidity $339.7

  • October 23

    • Yes6%
    • No94%

    Volume $591.3 · Liquidity $430.5

  • October 29

    • Yes7%
    • No93%

    Volume $481.4 · Liquidity $198.7

  • October 10

    • Yes5%
    • No95%

    Volume $227.1 · Liquidity $431.8

  • October 14

    • Yes10%
    • No90%

    Volume $151.7 · Liquidity $210.7

  • October 4

    • Yes1%
    • No99%

    Volume $137.7 · Liquidity $279.7

  • On or prior to October 1

    Closed
    • Yes0%
    • No100%

    Volume $135.3 · Liquidity —

  • October 30

    • Yes7%
    • No93%

    Volume $133.7 · Liquidity $820.4

  • October 7

    • Yes1%
    • No99%

    Volume $117.1 · Liquidity $271

  • October 15

    • Yes4%
    • No96%

    Volume $116.1 · Liquidity $295

  • October 5

    • Yes11%
    • No89%

    Volume $113.2 · Liquidity $207.2

  • October 22

    • Yes3%
    • No97%

    Volume $106.2 · Liquidity $261.1

  • October 25

    • Yes1%
    • No99%

    Volume $97.7 · Liquidity $213.5

  • October 2

    • Yes3%
    • No97%

    Volume $96.2 · Liquidity $171.7

  • October 12

    • Yes4%
    • No96%

    Volume $96.1 · Liquidity $289.4

  • October 17

    • Yes1%
    • No100%

    Volume $96.1 · Liquidity $222.9

  • October 18

    • Yes4%
    • No96%

    Volume $96.1 · Liquidity $443.4

  • October 3

    • Yes1%
    • No99%

    Volume $96.1 · Liquidity $223.4

  • October 13

    • Yes1%
    • No99%

    Volume $96.1 · Liquidity $175.3

  • October 16

    • Yes1%
    • No99%

    Volume $96.1 · Liquidity $190.5

  • October 26

    • Yes12%
    • No88%

    Volume $95.9 · Liquidity $349.5

  • October 19

    • Yes1%
    • No99%

    Volume $92.7 · Liquidity $330.9

  • October 8

    • Yes8%
    • No92%

    Volume $91.1 · Liquidity $485.5

  • October 27

    • Yes1%
    • No99%

    Volume $91.1 · Liquidity $212.2

  • October 6

    • Yes3%
    • No97%

    Volume $91.1 · Liquidity $197.1

  • October 11

    • Yes5%
    • No95%

    Volume $86.1 · Liquidity $348.4

  • October 24

    • Yes4%
    • No96%

    Volume $86.1 · Liquidity $229.1

  • October 9

    • Yes8%
    • No92%

    Volume $76.1 · Liquidity $445

Resolution rules

On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" ( Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon." This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Meta's "Watermelon" model, or a model identified as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," is made available to the general public. A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

How to read these odds

Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.

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