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Gemini Argon released on...?

Markets

  • October 27

    • Yes20%
    • No80%

    Volume $200.1 · Liquidity $314.7

  • October 21

    • Yes5%
    • No95%

    Volume $139.5 · Liquidity $264.9

  • October 20

    • Yes13%
    • No88%

    Volume $139.5 · Liquidity $284.2

  • On or prior to October 8

    • Yes5%
    • No95%

    Volume $139.5 · Liquidity $194.3

  • October 9

    • Yes7%
    • No94%

    Volume $139.5 · Liquidity $197.1

  • October 10

    • Yes13%
    • No88%

    Volume $139.5 · Liquidity $179.7

  • October 11

    • Yes12%
    • No89%

    Volume $139.5 · Liquidity $238.2

  • October 12

    • Yes14%
    • No87%

    Volume $139.5 · Liquidity $264.6

  • October 13

    • Yes13%
    • No87%

    Volume $139.5 · Liquidity $259

  • October 14

    • Yes12%
    • No88%

    Volume $139.5 · Liquidity $304.4

  • October 16

    • Yes7%
    • No94%

    Volume $139.5 · Liquidity $287.6

  • October 22

    • Yes13%
    • No87%

    Volume $139.5 · Liquidity $297.6

  • October 23

    • Yes10%
    • No90%

    Volume $139.5 · Liquidity $259.3

  • October 24

    • Yes18%
    • No82%

    Volume $139.5 · Liquidity $258.5

  • October 25

    • Yes10%
    • No90%

    Volume $139.5 · Liquidity $251.1

  • October 26

    • Yes12%
    • No88%

    Volume $139.5 · Liquidity $265.1

  • October 28

    • Yes9%
    • No91%

    Volume $139.5 · Liquidity $308.4

  • October 29

    • Yes12%
    • No89%

    Volume $139.5 · Liquidity $276.2

  • October 30

    • Yes9%
    • No91%

    Volume $139.5 · Liquidity $292.9

  • October 31

    • Yes14%
    • No86%

    Volume $139.5 · Liquidity $275.2

  • No release by October 31

    • Yes7%
    • No94%

    Volume $139.5 · Liquidity $274.3

  • October 15

    • Yes14%
    • No87%

    Volume $139.5 · Liquidity $259

  • October 17

    • Yes12%
    • No89%

    Volume $139.5 · Liquidity $271.7

  • October 18

    • Yes10%
    • No90%

    Volume $139.5 · Liquidity $301.7

  • October 19

    • Yes5%
    • No95%

    Volume $139.5 · Liquidity $281.1

Resolution rules

On September 30, 2026, Google announced Gemini 4 Argon, its next-generation frontier model ( with initial availability limited to trusted partners through its Fairwind Program. This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's "Gemini Argon," or a model qualifying under the terms below, is made available to the general public. Any model whose official name includes "Argon," or that Google officially describes as an Argon model, an Argon-class model, or the public release or counterpart of the model referenced in the announcement, will qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

How to read these odds

Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.

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