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Which countries will have an Ebola case in 2026?

Markets

  • Republic of the Congo

    • Yes24%
    • No77%

    Volume $15K · Liquidity $1.7K

  • Kenya

    • Yes98%
    • No2%

    Volume $14.8K · Liquidity $2.3K

  • United States

    • Yes11%
    • No89%

    Volume $11K · Liquidity $1.2K

  • South Sudan

    • Yes42%
    • No59%

    Volume $4.6K · Liquidity $1.8K

  • China

    • Yes10%
    • No91%

    Volume $4.2K · Liquidity $179.3

  • Rwanda

    • Yes28%
    • No72%

    Volume $3.5K · Liquidity $701.9

  • Canada

    • Yes12%
    • No88%

    Volume $2.6K · Liquidity $243

  • Uganda

    Closed
    • Yes100%
    • No0%

    Volume $2K · Liquidity —

  • India

    • Yes21%
    • No79%

    Volume $849.5 · Liquidity $1.4K

  • Ethiopia

    • Yes9%
    • No92%

    Volume $451.8 · Liquidity $187

  • Somalia

    • Yes35%
    • No66%

    Volume $339.1 · Liquidity $847.2

  • Burundi

    • Yes17%
    • No83%

    Volume $312.8 · Liquidity $814

  • Nigeria

    • Yes48%
    • No53%

    Volume $24.9 · Liquidity $577.8

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a confirmed case of Ebola in the territory of the specified country reported between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any active laboratory-confirmed, or otherwise officially confirmed, Ebola infection identified within the territory of the specified country will qualify, regardless of where exposure, symptom onset, or testing occurred. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the relevant national and international health authorities; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

How to read these odds

Each price runs from $0 to $1 and can be read as the probability the market assigns to an outcome: $0.62 means roughly 62%. Prices move with every trade, so they are a crowd estimate, not a guarantee. Before trading, check the resolution rules above, the volume and the liquidity, and only risk money you can afford to lose.

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