Placing your first trade can feel confusing if you've never used a prediction market before. This guide breaks down how to trade on Polymarket, from buying shares to choosing an order type.

How to trade on Polymarket: buying YES and NO shares

Every Polymarket question has two sides: YES and NO. Shares trade between 1¢ and 99¢, and a winning share always pays $1.00. If you buy a YES share at 62¢ and the market resolves YES, you receive $1.00, a profit of 38¢. If it resolves NO, that share becomes worthless.

Buying NO works the same way in reverse. A NO share at 40¢ pays $1.00 if the market resolves NO, a profit of 60¢, and $0 if it resolves YES.

Reading the price as a probability

Traders often read the price as an implied probability. A YES price of 62¢ roughly implies the market sees a 62% chance of that outcome. This is useful context, but it's not a guarantee. Learn more in our guide on how prediction markets work.

Limit orders vs. market orders

There are two main order types on Polymarket:

Order typeHow it worksBest for
Market orderFills immediately at the best available priceSpeed, when price certainty matters less
Limit orderOnly fills at your chosen price or betterPrice control, avoiding slippage

A market order buys or sells right away but may fill at a slightly worse price if there's not much liquidity. A limit order waits until someone is willing to trade at your specified price, which might mean it never fills.

Worked example in cents

Suppose YES shares are trading at 58¢, and you want to buy 100 shares.

  • Market order: You buy at the best available price, maybe 58¢ or slightly higher if liquidity is thin, spending roughly $58 for 100 shares.
  • Limit order: You set your limit at 55¢. Your order only fills if the price drops to 55¢ or lower, costing $55 for 100 shares, but it might not fill at all if the price never reaches that level.

If YES later resolves true, each share pays $1.00. At a 58¢ average cost, your profit is 42¢ per share; at 55¢, it's 45¢ per share. If YES resolves false, all shares pay $0, and you lose your full stake.

Fees on trades

Trading may involve fees that affect your net profit. [verify before publishing: current maker/taker fee structure and any fee on winnings] Check our dedicated guide on Polymarket fees before trading.

Placing your order

  1. Open the market you're interested in.
  2. Choose YES or NO.
  3. Select market or limit order.
  4. Enter your share amount or dollar amount.
  5. Review the estimated cost and confirm.

Managing risk

Never trade more than you can afford to lose. Prices can move sharply on news, and a position can go to zero. For a deeper approach to sizing trades, see our guide on Kelly position sizing.

Summary

  • YES and NO shares always settle between $0 and $1.00.
  • Market orders fill fast; limit orders control price but may not fill.
  • Prices can be read as implied probabilities, not guarantees.
  • Always account for fees before estimating profit.

FAQ

Mastering how to trade on Polymarket starts with understanding shares, order types, and the real financial risk involved.

Choosing between YES shares and NO shares

Deciding whether to buy YES shares or NO shares comes down to which outcome you think is more likely, relative to the current price. If you believe the true probability is higher than the YES price implies, buying YES shares may be reasonable. If you think it's lower, NO shares might reflect your view better.

This is not about certainty. Prices reflect the collective view of everyone trading, and that view can be wrong. Markets can also shift quickly, so a position that looks favorable now might look different tomorrow.

Partial fills and liquidity

Not every order fills completely at one price. In thinner markets, a market order might fill part of your request at one price and the rest at a slightly worse one. Limit orders avoid this by only filling at your set price, though they may fill slowly or not at all.

Closing a position before resolution

You don't have to hold a share until the market resolves. You can sell YES or NO shares back into the market at the current price at any time before resolution, locking in a gain or a loss based on how the price has moved since you bought.

Learning to evaluate a trade

Before placing an order, it helps to think in terms of expected value rather than gut feeling. Our guide on expected value explains how to weigh probability against price. Reviewing common pitfalls in our guide on common mistakes can also help you avoid avoidable losses.