Kimi K4 released by…?
{name}: πιθανότητες σε πραγματικό χρόνο
October 31, 2026
- Yes6%
- No94%
Volume $15.4K · Liquidity $2.3K
December 31, 2026
- Yes12%
- No88%
Volume $10.4K · Liquidity $407.9
March 31, 2027
- Yes23%
- No77%
Volume $2.5K · Liquidity $384.2
Κανόνες καθορισμού του αποτελέσματος
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”. Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Πώς να ερμηνεύσεις αυτές τις πιθανότητες
Κάθε τιμή κυμαίνεται από $0 έως $1 και μπορεί να ερμηνευτεί ως η πιθανότητα που αποδίδει η αγορά σε ένα ενδεχόμενο: η τιμή $0.62 αντιστοιχεί σε πιθανότητα περίπου 62%. Οι τιμές αλλάζουν με κάθε συναλλαγή, επομένως αποτελούν συλλογική εκτίμηση και όχι εγγύηση. Πριν κάνεις συναλλαγές, έλεγξε τους παραπάνω κανόνες καθορισμού του αποτελέσματος, τον όγκο συναλλαγών και τη ρευστότητα. Ρίσκαρε μόνο χρήματα που αντέχεις οικονομικά να χάσεις.
Εργαλεία υπολογισμού πιθανοτήτων · Γλωσσάρι · Δωρεάν μαθήματα
Περισσότερες αγορές για Τεχνολογία

Largest Company end of December 2026?
NVIDIA: 76%
24h vol $117.9K · Ends 1 Ιαν 2027

Who will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for in 2026?
China: 11%
24h vol $68.3K · Ends 1 Ιαν 2027

Next Claude Opus Model: Humanity’s Last Exam Debut?
50%+: 100%
24h vol $36K · Ends 1 Ιαν 2027

Highest Google Gemini score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
60%+: 31%
24h vol $14.7K · Ends 1 Ιαν 2027

Highest Claude score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
60%+: 38%
24h vol $13.5K · Ends 1 Ιαν 2027

Next Google Gemini Pro Model: Arena Debut?
1480+: 32%
24h vol $13.5K · Ends 1 Ιαν 2027

US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?
No: 88%
24h vol $10.6K · Ends 1 Ιαν 2027

Who will launch a Muse-like personal agent before 2027?
Anthropic: 41%
24h vol $9.1K · Ends 1 Ιαν 2027

How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?
0: 77%
24h vol $6.3K · Ends 1 Ιαν 2027

#2 AI Lab end of December? (Style Control On)
Company G: 50%
24h vol $4.1K · Ends 1 Ιαν 2027

Third-best AI Lab end of December?
Company H: 50%
24h vol $3.6K · Ends 1 Ιαν 2027

Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by...?
December 31: 97%
24h vol $77.3K · Ends 31 Δεκ 2026

