Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)
{name}: aktuelle Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Hike–Hike–Hike
- Yes11%
- No89%
Volume $81.3K · Liquidity $46.3K
Hike–Pause–Pause
- Yes20%
- No81%
Volume $63K · Liquidity $45.6K
Hike–Pause–Hike
- Yes62%
- No39%
Volume $55.9K · Liquidity $30.9K
Hike–Hike–Pause
- Yes4%
- No96%
Volume $42.8K · Liquidity $49K
Other
- Yes2%
- No98%
Volume $20.5K · Liquidity $46.6K
Pause–Pause–Pause
Closed- Yes0%
- No100%
Volume $15.6K · Liquidity —
Pause–Hike–Pause
Closed- Yes0%
- No100%
Volume $2.7K · Liquidity —
Pause–Pause–Hike
Closed- Yes0%
- No100%
Volume $2.1K · Liquidity —
Pause–Hike–Hike
Closed- Yes0%
- No100%
Volume $2K · Liquidity —
Regeln zur Ergebnisfeststellung
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other". Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
So liest du diese Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Jeder Preis liegt zwischen 0 und 1 US-Dollar und lässt sich als die Wahrscheinlichkeit interpretieren, die der Markt einem Ergebnis zuschreibt: 0,62 US-Dollar entsprechen etwa 62 %. Die Preise ändern sich mit jedem Handel. Sie spiegeln also die gemeinsame Einschätzung der Marktteilnehmer wider und sind keine Garantie. Prüfe vor dem Handel die oben genannten Regeln zur Ergebnisfeststellung, das Handelsvolumen und die Liquidität. Riskiere nur Geld, dessen Verlust du dir leisten kannst.
Weitere Märkte zu Wirtschaft

Fed decisions (Oct-Jan)
Pause-Hike-Pause: 56%
24h vol $3.3K · Ends 27. Jan. 2027

Swiss National Bank decision in December?
No Change: 73%
24h vol $23.6K · Ends 10. Dez. 2026

Fed Decision in December?
25 bps increase: 76%
24h vol $63.7K · Ends 10. Dez. 2026

Another Fed rate hike in 2026?
Yes: 79%
24h vol $12.3K · Ends 10. Dez. 2026

US recession by end of 2026?
No: 93%
24h vol $5.6K · Ends 31. Dez. 2026

How high will 30-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
5.70%: 77%
24h vol $3.6K · Ends 31. Dez. 2026

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
0 (0 bps): 96%
24h vol $27.1K · Ends 1. Jan. 2027

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go in October?
5.32%: 60%
24h vol $2.5K · Ends 1. Nov. 2026

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in October?
Below 5.18%: 62%
24h vol $1.2K · Ends 1. Nov. 2026

How low will 30-year Treasury yield get in October?
Below 5.55%: 74%
24h vol $1.1K · Ends 1. Nov. 2026

How high will 30-year Treasury yield go in October?
5.73%: 47%
24h vol $845.3 · Ends 1. Nov. 2026

Fed Decision in October?
No change: 80%
24h vol $1.1M · Ends 29. Okt. 2026

