Iran leadership change by...?
{name}: odds i realtid
December 31
- Yes11%
- No90%
Volume $5.1M · Liquidity $181.8K
April 30
Closed- Yes0%
- No100%
Volume $5M · Liquidity —
June 30
Closed- Yes0%
- No100%
Volume $4.4M · Liquidity —
May 31
Closed- Yes0%
- No100%
Volume $3.4M · Liquidity —
March 31
Closed- Yes0%
- No100%
Volume $3.2M · Liquidity —
September 30
Closed- Yes0%
- No100%
Volume $1.7M · Liquidity —
August 31
Closed- Yes0%
- No100%
Volume $1.6M · Liquidity —
July 31
Closed- Yes0%
- No100%
Volume $1.6M · Liquidity —
October 31
- Yes1%
- No99%
Volume $574.7K · Liquidity $83.5K
June 30, 2027
- Yes22%
- No79%
Volume $367K · Liquidity $87.8K
November 30
- Yes6%
- No95%
Volume $156.5K · Liquidity $127.7K
August 22
Closed- Yes0%
- No100%
Volume $79.5K · Liquidity —
August 15
Closed- Yes0%
- No100%
Volume $61.8K · Liquidity —
March 13
Closed- Yes0%
- No100%
Volume — · Liquidity —
Regler för hur utfallet avgörs
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Så tolkar du oddsen
Varje pris ligger mellan 0 och 1 dollar och kan tolkas som den sannolikhet marknaden tillskriver ett utfall: 0,62 dollar motsvarar ungefär 62 %. Priserna ändras vid varje affär, så de speglar marknadsdeltagarnas samlade bedömning och är ingen garanti. Innan du handlar bör du kontrollera reglerna ovan för hur utfallet avgörs, handelsvolymen och likviditeten. Riskera bara pengar du har råd att förlora.
Fler marknader om Politik

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
March 31: 66%
24h vol $396.8K · Ends 1 jan. 2027

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
No: 83%
24h vol $295.3K · Ends 1 jan. 2027

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
No: 86%
24h vol $110.5K · Ends 1 jan. 2027

Saudi airspace closed by...?
December 31: 20%
24h vol $51.4K · Ends 1 jan. 2027

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?
December 31: 17%
24h vol $43.4K · Ends 1 jan. 2027

Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by...?
December 31: 54%
24h vol $29.5K · Ends 1 jan. 2027

Houthis enter Aden by...?
December 31: 26%
24h vol $12.4K · Ends 1 jan. 2027

Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?
Jared Kushner: 43%
24h vol $10.8K · Ends 1 jan. 2027

Israeli airspace closed by...? (Excluding Holiday Closures)
December 31: 23%
24h vol $9.5K · Ends 1 jan. 2027

Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...?
December 31, 2026: 43%
24h vol $6.9K · Ends 31 dec. 2026

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?
No: 94%
24h vol $22.4K · Ends 1 dec. 2026

Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by...?
November 30: 66%
24h vol $12.5K · Ends 30 nov. 2026

