Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?
{name}: odds langsung
September 30
Closed- Yes0%
- No100%
Volume $4.2M · Liquidity —
August 31
Closed- Yes0%
- No100%
Volume $2.6M · Liquidity —
April 30
Closed- Yes0%
- No100%
Volume $1.7M · Liquidity —
December 31
- Yes16%
- No85%
Volume $1.7M · Liquidity $259.7K
July 31
Closed- Yes0%
- No100%
Volume $1.4M · Liquidity $0
May 31
Closed- Yes0%
- No100%
Volume $1.3M · Liquidity —
October 31
- Yes7%
- No94%
Volume $1.2M · Liquidity $185.9K
June 30
Closed- Yes0%
- No100%
Volume $1.2M · Liquidity —
September 15
Closed- Yes0%
- No100%
Volume $831.1K · Liquidity $0
March 31
Closed- Yes0%
- No100%
Volume $330.3K · Liquidity —
June 15
Closed- Yes0%
- No100%
Volume $221.1K · Liquidity —
June 22
Closed- Yes0%
- No100%
Volume $129.3K · Liquidity —
Peraturan penyelesaian
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at , including both the chart and downloadable files.
Cara membaca odds
Setiap harga dari $0 hingga $1 boleh dibaca sebagai kebarangkalian: $0.62 bermaksud kira-kira 62%. Ia anggaran pasaran, bukan jaminan. Semak peraturan, volum dan kecairan sebelum berdagang.
Lebih banyak pasaran Politik

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
No: 82%
24h vol $316.4K · Ends 1 Jan 2027

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
March 31: 66%
24h vol $294.8K · Ends 1 Jan 2027

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
No: 86%
24h vol $76.1K · Ends 1 Jan 2027

Saudi airspace closed by...?
December 31: 20%
24h vol $51.5K · Ends 1 Jan 2027

Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by...?
December 31: 53%
24h vol $23K · Ends 1 Jan 2027

Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?
Steve Witkoff: 42%
24h vol $10.3K · Ends 1 Jan 2027

Israeli airspace closed by...? (Excluding Holiday Closures)
December 31: 24%
24h vol $9.5K · Ends 1 Jan 2027

Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...?
December 31, 2026: 44%
24h vol $11.7K · Ends 31 Dis 2026

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?
No: 94%
24h vol $26.8K · Ends 1 Dis 2026

Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by...?
November 30: 57%
24h vol $15.3K · Ends 30 Nov 2026

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23?
No Hormuz Agreement: 88%
24h vol $971.6K · Ends 4 Nov 2026

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement before the midterms?
No Hormuz Agreement: 84%
24h vol $116.6K · Ends 4 Nov 2026

