How to use the kalkulator nilai jangkaan
- Enter the market price of the share.
- Enter your own honest estimate of the probability, as a percentage.
- Read the expected value per share and for your full position.
What the result tells you
Expected value (EV) compares what you think the chance of an outcome is with the price the market charges. If you believe an event has a 70% chance and the share costs $0.62, the expected value is positive; if your estimate is lower than the price, it is negative. EV is only as good as your probability estimate, and a positive EV trade can still lose — it describes the average result over many similar decisions, not a single one.