Pasaule Prediction Markets
Ģeopolitika un pasaules notikumi.
Data from Polymarket, updated ….
Katra cena ir robežās no 0 līdz 1 ASV dolāram, un to var interpretēt kā varbūtību, ko tirgus piešķir konkrētam iznākumam: 0,62 ASV dolāri nozīmē aptuveni 62%. Cenas mainās ar katru darījumu, tāpēc tās atspoguļo tirgus dalībnieku kopējo vērtējumu, nevis garantiju. Pirms tirdzniecības iepazīsties ar iepriekš norādītajiem iznākuma noteikšanas noteikumiem, pārbaudi tirdzniecības apjomu un likviditāti un riskē tikai ar naudu, ko vari atļauties zaudēt.
Next French Presidential Election
Marine Le Pen: 40%
24h vol $735K · Ends 2027. g. 19. apr.
Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Gadi Eizenkot: 45%
24h vol $333.9K · Ends 2026. g. 28. okt.
Brazil Presidential Election
Flávio Bolsonaro: 87%
24h vol $263.3K · Ends 2026. g. 26. okt.
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
No: 83%
24h vol $223.6K · Ends 2027. g. 1. janv.
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
October 15: 97%
24h vol $170K · Ends 2026. g. 31. dec.
NATO x Russia military clash by...?
December 31: 24%
24h vol $80.1K · Ends 2027. g. 3. janv.
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?
June 30, 2027: 9%
24h vol $66.6K · Ends 2027. g. 1. jūl.
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
No: 98%
24h vol $62.4K · Ends 2027. g. 1. janv.
Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory
Other: 50%
24h vol $57.2K · Ends 2026. g. 26. okt.
Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?
December 31: 41%
24h vol $46.6K · Ends 2026. g. 1. nov.
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
December 31: 7%
24h vol $44K · Ends 2027. g. 1. janv.
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?
December 31: 13%
24h vol $43.1K · Ends 2026. g. 31. dec.
Xi Jinping out before 2027?
No: 97%
24h vol $40.2K · Ends 2027. g. 1. janv.
Modi out by December 31, 2026?
No: 95%
24h vol $30.1K · Ends 2027. g. 1. janv.
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?
No: 95%
24h vol $26.4K · Ends 2027. g. 1. janv.
Bulgaria Presidential Election
Iliana Iotova: 88%
24h vol $20.8K · Ends 2026. g. 26. okt.
Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in November
No change: 77%
24h vol $20.5K · Ends 2026. g. 4. nov.
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...?
December 31, 2027: 46%
24h vol $19.2K · Ends 2027. g. 1. janv.
Iran full airspace closure by...?
December 31: 30%
24h vol $18K · Ends 2027. g. 1. janv.
Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by...?
December 31: 25%
24h vol $17.6K · Ends 2027. g. 1. janv.
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
No: 95%
24h vol $17.4K · Ends 2027. g. 1. janv.
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?
No: 72%
24h vol $16.1K · Ends 2027. g. 1. janv.
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?
December 31: 36%
24h vol $15.5K · Ends 2027. g. 1. janv.
Russia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting by...?
December 31: 81%
24h vol $14.3K · Ends 2027. g. 1. janv.
Where will Putin and Zelenskyy meet next?
No meeting by December 31, 2027: 83%
24h vol $13K · Ends 2028. g. 1. janv.
Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?
No meeting before 2027: 96%
24h vol $12.6K · Ends 2027. g. 1. janv.
Rio de Janeiro Governor Election Second Round: Margin of Victory
Other: 50%
24h vol $12.4K · Ends 2026. g. 26. okt.
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?
No: 98%
24h vol $12.2K · Ends 2026. g. 20. okt.
Putin out as President of Russia by...?
June 30, 2027: 10%
24h vol $12K · Ends 2027. g. 1. jūl.
Will Russia target Kyiv on...?
October 13: 92%
24h vol $11.9K · Ends 2026. g. 1. nov.
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?
No: 97%
24h vol $11.6K · Ends 2027. g. 1. janv.
Which cities will Russia enter by December 31?
Druzkhivka: 36%
24h vol $9.9K · Ends 2027. g. 1. janv.
Avg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of October?
25-29: 56%
24h vol $9.4K · Ends 2026. g. 1. nov.
Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?
China: 77%
24h vol $9.2K · Ends 2027. g. 1. janv.
Iran leader end of 2026?
Mojtaba Khamenei: 88%
24h vol $8.8K · Ends 2026. g. 31. dec.
Next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs?
Person I: 50%
24h vol $8.6K · Ends 2027. g. 1. marts
Next Israeli Minister of Finance?
Person W: 50%
24h vol $7.9K · Ends 2027. g. 1. marts
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?
December 31: 14%
24h vol $7.8K · Ends 2027. g. 1. janv.
Iran Nuke before 2027?
No: 97%
24h vol $7.6K · Ends 2027. g. 1. janv.
Who will Trump meet with in 2026?
Vladimir Putin: 81%
24h vol $7.3K · Ends 2027. g. 1. janv.
Will Trump rename an ocean in 2026?
No: 94%
24h vol $6.8K · Ends 2027. g. 1. janv.
Next Chancellor of Germany before 2028?
No Next Chancellor before 2028: 62%
24h vol $6.7K · Ends 2028. g. 1. janv.
Pakistan military action against Yemen by...?
December 31: 28%
24h vol $6.5K · Ends 2026. g. 31. dec.
2026 Taiwanese Local Elections: Party Winner
Kuomintang (KMT): 82%
24h vol $6.3K · Ends 2026. g. 29. nov.
Spain General Election Winner
PP: 85%
24h vol $6.1K · Ends 2026. g. 30. nov.
Next Israeli Minister of Justice?
Person S: 50%
24h vol $5.4K · Ends 2027. g. 1. marts
New pandemic in 2026?
No: 96%
24h vol $5.3K · Ends 2027. g. 1. janv.
Next Israeli Minister of National Security?
Person W: 50%
24h vol $5K · Ends 2027. g. 1. marts