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ThePolyAcademy
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Next Israeli Minister of National Security?

{name}: tikimybės realiuoju laiku

  • No Next Minister by Feb 28

    • Yes35%
    • No66%

    Volume $10.8K · Liquidity $40.8K

  • Yoram Cohen

    • Yes14%
    • No86%

    Volume $6.6K · Liquidity $20.3K

  • Matan Kahana

    • Yes12%
    • No89%

    Volume $5.4K · Liquidity $32.6K

  • Itamar Ben Gvir

    • Yes12%
    • No88%

    Volume $3.9K · Liquidity $34.3K

  • Ofer Winter

    • Yes11%
    • No90%

    Volume $3.7K · Liquidity $26.8K

  • Talya Lankri

    • Yes10%
    • No91%

    Volume $3.1K · Liquidity $18.4K

  • Elazar Stern

    • Yes3%
    • No97%

    Volume $2.9K · Liquidity $28.5K

  • Amir Ohana

    • Yes4%
    • No96%

    Volume $1.2K · Liquidity $31.6K

  • Gideon Sa’ar

    • Yes0%
    • No100%

    Volume $896.9 · Liquidity $24.6K

  • Yossi Cohen

    • Yes0%
    • No100%

    Volume $811.1 · Liquidity $25K

  • Avi Dichter

    • Yes1%
    • No99%

    Volume $730.6 · Liquidity $24K

  • Yoav Segalovich

    • Yes4%
    • No96%

    Volume $416.6 · Liquidity $3.3K

  • Hili Tropper (Yechiel Tropper)

    • Yes1%
    • No99%

    Volume $286.7 · Liquidity $15.2K

  • Eli Cohen

    • Yes1%
    • No99%

    Volume $263 · Liquidity $15.9K

  • Meirav Ben-Ari

    • Yes2%
    • No98%

    Volume $248.5 · Liquidity $15.9K

  • Ram Ben-Barak

    • Yes1%
    • No99%

    Volume $243.9 · Liquidity $15.5K

  • Yair Golan

    • Yes1%
    • No99%

    Volume $229.1 · Liquidity $15.6K

  • Bezalel Smotrich

    • Yes0%
    • No100%

    Volume $140.1 · Liquidity $15.6K

  • Person W

    • Yes50%
    • No50%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Person M

    • Yes50%
    • No50%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Person N

    • Yes50%
    • No50%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Person O

    • Yes50%
    • No50%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Person P

    • Yes50%
    • No50%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Person Q

    • Yes50%
    • No50%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Person R

    • Yes50%
    • No50%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Person S

    • Yes50%
    • No50%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Person T

    • Yes50%
    • No50%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Person U

    • Yes50%
    • No50%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Person V

    • Yes50%
    • No50%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Person X

    • Yes50%
    • No50%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Person Y

    • Yes50%
    • No50%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Person Z

    • Yes50%
    • No50%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

  • Other

    • Yes50%
    • No50%

    Volume $0 · Liquidity $0

Baigties nustatymo taisyklės

This market will resolve to the individual who first assumes office as Israeli Minister of National Security in the first government formed following the 2026 Knesset elections. To count for resolution, the individual’s ministership must be approved by the Knesset in a vote of confidence in that government or a subsequent vote approving the individual’s appointment to that government. Any interim or caretaker Minister of National Security will not count toward the resolution of this market. Once a qualifying individual assumes office, subsequent replacements will not affect resolution. The individual must be appointed as “Minister of National Security” or be appointed to the ministerial position confirmed to be its successor position, retaining its primary responsibilities, by a consensus of credible reporting. Positions that assume only secondary responsibilities will not qualify as a successor. If the primary portfolio responsibilities previously assigned to Minister of National Security are attributable to multiple successor positions, this market will resolve to the individual appointed to one of the successor positions whose full name comes first in alphabetical order. If no such Minister of National Security assumes office by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Minister by Feb 28”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kaip suprasti šias tikimybes

Kiekviena kaina svyruoja nuo 0 iki 1 JAV dolerio ir gali būti suprantama kaip rinkos dalyvių numanoma baigties tikimybė: 0,62 JAV dolerio reiškia maždaug 62 %. Kainos kinta su kiekvienu sandoriu, todėl jos atspindi bendrą rinkos dalyvių vertinimą, o ne garantiją. Prieš pradėdami prekiauti, peržiūrėkite aukščiau pateiktas baigties nustatymo taisykles, patikrinkite prekybos apimtį bei likvidumą ir rizikuokite tik tais pinigais, kuriuos galite sau leisti prarasti.

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