Politika Prediction Markets
Rinkimai, teisėkūra ir politiniai įvykiai taip, kaip juos įkainoja rinka.
Data from Polymarket, updated ….
Kiekviena kaina svyruoja nuo 0 iki 1 JAV dolerio ir gali būti suprantama kaip rinkos dalyvių numanoma baigties tikimybė: 0,62 JAV dolerio reiškia maždaug 62 %. Kainos kinta su kiekvienu sandoriu, todėl jos atspindi bendrą rinkos dalyvių vertinimą, o ne garantiją. Prieš pradėdami prekiauti, peržiūrėkite aukščiau pateiktas baigties nustatymo taisykles, patikrinkite prekybos apimtį bei likvidumą ir rizikuokite tik tais pinigais, kuriuos galite sau leisti prarasti.
Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement and oil below $80 before the midterms?
No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate: 59%
24h vol $22.9K · Ends 2026-11-04
Donald Trump # Truth Social posts October 6 - October 13, 2026?
120-139: 56%
24h vol $22.7K · Ends 2026-10-13
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?
No: 99%
24h vol $22K · Ends 2026-11-01
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?
No: 94%
24h vol $20.5K · Ends 2026-12-01
NY-23 House Election Winner
Nick Langworthy (R): 96%
24h vol $18.5K · Ends 2026-11-04
MO-02 House Election Winner
Ann Wagner (R): 77%
24h vol $17.1K · Ends 2026-11-04
Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Pará
Lula: 82%
24h vol $17K · Ends 2026-10-26
GA-11 House Election Winner
John Cowan (R): 96%
24h vol $16.6K · Ends 2026-11-04
OH-14 House Election Winner
David Joyce (R): 94%
24h vol $16K · Ends 2026-11-04
Ilhan Omar federally charged by...?
December 31: 10%
24h vol $14.8K · Ends 2027-01-01
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
No: 76%
24h vol $14.5K · Ends 2026-11-04
Toronto Mayoral Election Winner
Olivia Chow: 66%
24h vol $13.4K · Ends 2026-10-27
Ohio Senate Election Winner
Sherrod Brown (D): 62%
24h vol $12.5K · Ends 2026-11-04
Republicans win the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement?
No Hormuz Agreement; R Senate: 31%
24h vol $12.4K · Ends 2026-11-04
Alabama Governor Election Winner
Tommy Tuberville (R): 94%
24h vol $12.2K · Ends 2026-11-04
Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...?
December 31: 52%
24h vol $11.9K · Ends 2026-12-31
Arizona Governor Election Winner
Katie Hobbs (D): 88%
24h vol $11.8K · Ends 2026-11-04
House favorite on November 2 wins the election?
Yes: 92%
24h vol $11.5K · Ends 2026-11-04
Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by...?
November 30: 57%
24h vol $11.4K · Ends 2026-11-30
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...?
December 31, 2026: 46%
24h vol $11.2K · Ends 2026-12-31
Israeli airspace closed by...? (Excluding Holiday Closures)
December 31: 23%
24h vol $10.4K · Ends 2027-01-01
Trump out as President before 2027?
No: 96%
24h vol $10.4K · Ends 2027-01-01
Donald Trump # Truth Social posts October 9 - October 16, 2026?
140-159: 26%
24h vol $10.3K · Ends 2026-10-16
Will the Iranian regime fall by October 31?
No: 99%
24h vol $10.3K · Ends 2026-11-01
Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?
No: 94%
24h vol $10.2K · Ends 2026-11-01
How many Senate and House seats will Republicans have after the midterms?
47–49 and 193–207: 25%
24h vol $10.2K · Ends 2026-11-04
HI-02 House Election Winner
Jill Tokuda (D): 95%
24h vol $10.2K · Ends 2026-11-04
Nebraska Senate Election Winner
Pete Ricketts (R): 73%
24h vol $10K · Ends 2026-11-04
Where will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place...?
No Meeting by December 31: 53%
24h vol $9.9K · Ends 2026-12-31
Kimberly Guilfoyle out as U.S. Ambassador to Greece by...?
December 31: 78%
24h vol $9.6K · Ends 2027-01-01
Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?
Steve Witkoff: 42%
24h vol $8.9K · Ends 2027-01-01
Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?
Marine Le Pen: 90%
24h vol $8.7K · Ends 2027-04-19
Who wins the Senate pending oil below $85 before the midterms?
Oil ≥ $85; D Senate: 51%
24h vol $8.4K · Ends 2026-11-04
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by...?
No: 78%
24h vol $8.3K · Ends 2027-01-01
Who wins the Senate pending oil above or below $80 before the midterms?
Oil ≥ $80; D Senate: 55%
24h vol $8.1K · Ends 2026-11-04
New Hampshire Senate Election Winner
Chris Pappas (D): 89%
24h vol $7.5K · Ends 2026-11-04
US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by...?
December 31: 39%
24h vol $7.3K · Ends 2027-01-01
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
No: 97%
24h vol $7.2K · Ends 2027-01-01
Idaho Senate Election Winner
Jim Risch (R): 95%
24h vol $7.1K · Ends 2026-11-04
NM-02 House Election Winner
Gabe Vasquez (D): 92%
24h vol $7.1K · Ends 2026-11-04
NY-24 House Election Winner
Claudia Tenney (R): 97%
24h vol $6.9K · Ends 2026-11-04
Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place Abroad
Lula: 68%
24h vol $6.9K · Ends 2026-10-26
WI-05 House Election Winner
Scott Fitzgerald (R): 97%
24h vol $6.7K · Ends 2026-11-04
TX-26 House Election Winner
Brandon Gill (R): 97%
24h vol $6.7K · Ends 2026-11-04
Donald Trump # Truth Social posts October 13 - October 20, 2026?
200+: 19%
24h vol $6.6K · Ends 2026-10-20
NJ-02 House Election Winner
Jeff Van Drew (R): 84%
24h vol $6.2K · Ends 2026-11-04
Next Ministerpräsident of Sachsen-Anhalt?
Ulrich Siegmund: 78%
24h vol $6.1K · Ends 2027-06-01
Kansas Senate Election Winner
Roger Marshall (R): 63%
24h vol $6.1K · Ends 2026-11-04