Who will launch a Muse-like personal agent before 2027?
{name}: reaaliaikaiset todennäköisyydet
Anthropic
- Yes10%
- No91%
Volume $10.2K · Liquidity $3K
Microsoft
- Yes33%
- No68%
Volume $5.3K · Liquidity $2.4K
Perplexity
- Yes16%
- No85%
Volume $5K · Liquidity $1.9K
Amazon
- Yes13%
- No88%
Volume $2.3K · Liquidity $2.9K
Markkinan ratkaisusäännöt
On September 8, 2026, Meta launched Muse, a personal AI agent that runs on a cloud computer dedicated to each user and carries out tasks, such as sending email and booking travel ( This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company launches a Muse-like personal agent by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A Muse-like personal agent is an AI agent that runs on a cloud computer provided by the listed company that is dedicated to the individual user and remains assigned to that user between tasks, can begin tasks on its own, such as on a schedule or when a new email arrives, and can take actions on websites or in the user's connected accounts, such as sending email or submitting forms. Computing environments created for each task or session will not qualify. Products limited to a single type of task, such as coding, software development, email, or travel booking, offered only through an API, or sold only to businesses will not qualify. A Muse-like personal agent must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. Availability limited to paid subscription plans or to certain countries will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed company, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Näin tulkitset näitä todennäköisyyksiä
Jokainen hinta on 0–1 dollaria, ja sen voi tulkita markkinoiden arvioksi tietyn lopputuloksen todennäköisyydestä: 0,62 dollaria tarkoittaa noin 62 %:n todennäköisyyttä. Hinnat muuttuvat jokaisen kaupan myötä, joten ne kuvastavat osallistujien yhteistä arviota eivätkä takaa lopputulosta. Tarkista ennen kaupankäyntiä yllä olevat ratkaisusäännöt, kaupankäynnin volyymi ja likviditeetti. Riskiin kannattaa asettaa vain rahaa, jonka voit menettää.
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