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ThePolyAcademy
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Next Muse Spark Model (1.4+) released on...?

{name}: reaaliaikaiset todennäköisyydet

  • No release by October 31

    • Yes88%
    • No13%

    Volume $7.8K · Liquidity $1.1K

  • October 28

    • Yes2%
    • No98%

    Volume $3.2K · Liquidity $1.3K

  • October 21

    • Yes3%
    • No97%

    Volume $2.9K · Liquidity $1.2K

  • October 14

    • Yes4%
    • No96%

    Volume $2.5K · Liquidity $1.3K

  • October 19

    • Yes4%
    • No96%

    Volume $2K · Liquidity $1.2K

  • October 16

    • Yes2%
    • No98%

    Volume $1.6K · Liquidity $1K

  • October 6

    Closed
    • Yes0%
    • No100%

    Volume $1.6K · Liquidity —

  • On or prior to October 1

    Closed
    • Yes0%
    • No100%

    Volume $1.4K · Liquidity —

  • October 9

    Closed
    • Yes0%
    • No100%

    Volume $1.3K · Liquidity —

  • October 7

    Closed
    • Yes0%
    • No100%

    Volume $1.3K · Liquidity —

  • October 2

    Closed
    • Yes0%
    • No100%

    Volume $1.2K · Liquidity —

  • October 3

    Closed
    • Yes0%
    • No100%

    Volume $1.2K · Liquidity —

  • October 5

    Closed
    • Yes0%
    • No100%

    Volume $1.1K · Liquidity —

  • October 26

    • Yes0%
    • No100%

    Volume $1.1K · Liquidity $964.4

  • October 8

    Closed
    • Yes0%
    • No100%

    Volume $1.1K · Liquidity —

  • October 4

    Closed
    • Yes0%
    • No100%

    Volume $1K · Liquidity —

  • October 11

    Closed
    • Yes0%
    • No100%

    Volume $719 · Liquidity —

  • October 31

    • Yes2%
    • No98%

    Volume $681.6 · Liquidity $1.1K

  • October 10

    Closed
    • Yes0%
    • No100%

    Volume $680.2 · Liquidity —

  • October 13

    • Yes1%
    • No99%

    Volume $571.3 · Liquidity $564.9

  • October 17

    • Yes4%
    • No96%

    Volume $542.5 · Liquidity $842.5

  • October 25

    • Yes1%
    • No99%

    Volume $501.1 · Liquidity $1.1K

  • October 30

    • Yes3%
    • No97%

    Volume $493 · Liquidity $1K

  • October 15

    • Yes1%
    • No99%

    Volume $483.2 · Liquidity $918.4

  • October 23

    • Yes1%
    • No99%

    Volume $482.4 · Liquidity $1K

  • October 22

    • Yes3%
    • No97%

    Volume $477.4 · Liquidity $1.5K

  • October 18

    • Yes5%
    • No95%

    Volume $455.7 · Liquidity $944

  • October 20

    • Yes1%
    • No99%

    Volume $439 · Liquidity $1.3K

  • October 24

    • Yes4%
    • No96%

    Volume $419.7 · Liquidity $917.6

  • October 27

    • Yes1%
    • No99%

    Volume $321.2 · Liquidity $952.7

  • October 29

    • Yes1%
    • No99%

    Volume $317.1 · Liquidity $1K

  • October 12

    • Yes0%
    • No100%

    Volume $282.4 · Liquidity $560.5

Markkinan ratkaisusäännöt

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Meta's next Muse Spark model (1.4+) is made available to the general public. A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Muse Spark" and be designated as version 1.4 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 1.4 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Spark 1.2 or Muse Spark 1.3 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Muse Spark 2, while models whose name does not include "Muse Spark" or which retain a version designation below 1.4, such as Muse Spark 1.3 (released September 2, 2026, including any of its reasoning modes, open-weight re-releases, rollouts, promotions, or snapshots), Muse Glimmer, or Muse Image, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Näin tulkitset näitä todennäköisyyksiä

Jokainen hinta on 0–1 dollaria, ja sen voi tulkita markkinoiden arvioksi tietyn lopputuloksen todennäköisyydestä: 0,62 dollaria tarkoittaa noin 62 %:n todennäköisyyttä. Hinnat muuttuvat jokaisen kaupan myötä, joten ne kuvastavat osallistujien yhteistä arviota eivätkä takaa lopputulosta. Tarkista ennen kaupankäyntiä yllä olevat ratkaisusäännöt, kaupankäynnin volyymi ja likviditeetti. Riskiin kannattaa asettaa vain rahaa, jonka voit menettää.

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