Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?
{name}: সরাসরি আপডেট হওয়া সম্ভাবনা
Jared Kushner
Closed- Yes100%
- No0%
Volume $215K · Liquidity —
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf
- Yes24%
- No77%
Volume $127.8K · Liquidity $17.8K
Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani
Closed- Yes100%
- No0%
Volume $115.4K · Liquidity —
J.D. Vance
- Yes20%
- No81%
Volume $85.7K · Liquidity $23K
Masoud Pezeshkian
- Yes13%
- No88%
Volume $75.5K · Liquidity $22.4K
Steve Witkoff
Closed- Yes100%
- No0%
Volume $69K · Liquidity —
Rafael Grossi
- Yes14%
- No87%
Volume $64K · Liquidity $16.6K
Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi
- Yes14%
- No86%
Volume $63K · Liquidity $4.8K
Ishaq Dar
- Yes21%
- No80%
Volume $59.7K · Liquidity $16.6K
Donald Trump
- Yes5%
- No95%
Volume $54.8K · Liquidity $28K
Abbas Araghchi
Closed- Yes100%
- No0%
Volume $45.6K · Liquidity —
Marco Rubio
- Yes9%
- No92%
Volume $44.8K · Liquidity $22K
Kazem Gharibabadi
- Yes26%
- No75%
Volume $38.1K · Liquidity $22.7K
Majid Takht-Ravanchi
- Yes21%
- No79%
Volume $36.7K · Liquidity $15.2K
Mohammed bin Salman
- Yes4%
- No96%
Volume $35.5K · Liquidity $21.8K
Mojtaba Khamenei
- Yes2%
- No98%
Volume $31.7K · Liquidity $21K
Nick Stewart
- Yes22%
- No79%
Volume $29.8K · Liquidity $16.6K
Ahmad Vahidi
- Yes4%
- No96%
Volume $25.7K · Liquidity $26.9K
Pete Hegseth
- Yes5%
- No95%
Volume $25.1K · Liquidity $30K
Esmail Qaani
- Yes3%
- No97%
Volume $19.7K · Liquidity $18.7K
Steve Witkoff
- Yes42%
- No59%
Volume $17.7K · Liquidity $34.3K
Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani
- Yes35%
- No66%
Volume $16.9K · Liquidity $27.4K
Abbas Araghchi
- Yes41%
- No60%
Volume $16.5K · Liquidity $29.3K
Jared Kushner
- Yes42%
- No59%
Volume $13.8K · Liquidity $33.8K
Elon Musk
- Yes3%
- No98%
Volume $6.1K · Liquidity $19.2K
Newt Gingrich
- Yes2%
- No98%
Volume $3.5K · Liquidity $10.6K
Palmer Luckey
- Yes3%
- No97%
Volume $3.1K · Liquidity $13.4K
ফলাফল নির্ধারণের নিয়ম
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments. Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time. Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round. Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating. If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
এই সম্ভাবনাগুলো কীভাবে বুঝবেন
প্রতিটি দাম $0 থেকে $1-এর মধ্যে থাকে এবং কোনো ফলাফল ঘটার সম্ভাবনা সম্পর্কে বাজারের ধারণা হিসেবে এটিকে বোঝা যায়: $0.62 মানে প্রায় 62% সম্ভাবনা। প্রতিটি ট্রেডের সঙ্গে দাম বদলায়, তাই এগুলো অংশগ্রহণকারীদের সম্মিলিত অনুমান, কোনো নিশ্চয়তা নয়। ট্রেড করার আগে উপরের ফলাফল নির্ধারণের নিয়ম, লেনদেনের পরিমাণ ও তারল্য যাচাই করুন। আর শুধু ততটুকু অর্থই ঝুঁকিতে রাখুন, যতটুকু হারানোর সামর্থ্য আপনার আছে।
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